Outright betting

[kosar19]

They have a Zoo Keepers and animal task currently to do.
Rebecca jumped in wanting to be the Seal. As she does a superb impression of being a Beached Whale at all other times, she should do rather well

[trickrick]

Beached whale..Rat boy..A right bunch of animals in there...

Interestingly Rex's outright odds on betfair are shorter than they have been for a long time..joint 3rd favourite with Mikey Luke and Rachel!!! Could lay him off now, but I will hang fire a bit longer..Still think there is some mileage this housemate...

[2damnhype]

funny how i couldn't think of anything that Rebecca had done a few days ago! Since then she has done her best to make it the Rebecca show - pity all that's done is make my realise my mistake in thinking she is ok!

[Beanie]

A few quick outright punts for today...

Rex @ 16.5

Just for a quick trade - expect his price to trade towards 12s on Friday night when he should get a good cheer and boost from Jen going...not sure of long term potential tho.

Dale @ 44/Stuart @ 60

Jen going has the potential to completely reverse the fortunes of these two - it'll take some doing and I doubt Dale has the brainpower to pull it off, but if any of the longer odds shots are going to rally and become contenders, its these two, not only because of Jen going, allowing them to come out of the shadow of the contrived romance storyline, but also as they can corner a big portion of the voting market just by becoming likeable.

Mikey @ 19.5

I don't really like him but he's fading into the background just now, so should coast through quite a few more weeks without further damage, and price looks a touch big.

Of the others, Kat still too short despite the drift, Luke needs Rebecca and probably Mario to go before he can reverse his fortunes, and they should go before him so thats possible, but I think his price will go out before coming in again, can't see Rachel winning this at all, forget the rest really.

[Beanie]

Well that was slightly mistimed

3 new females confirmed as going into the house tomorrow - cue all housemates drifting slightly(altho any female going in 4 weeks late is gonna have to be pretty special to have any sort of chance of winning)...

Don't think that it's particularly good news for Stu and Dale either...

[MickeyPaul]

Holy sweet mother of trash. I hadn't seen any of this at all until yesterday when I spotted a story about a fella gobbing in someone's face. I decided to have a wee look on youtube and.... wah-how. I was speechless. Really. One clip led to another and even though I have loads of coverage still to catch up on, I can't see past that Darnell fella at the moment. Same as most I guess. A decent balance between normality and insanity.... oh God. I think I'm about to get wrapped up in all this shit.

[ONEDUNME]

Don't worry about it MickeyPaul.




And welcome to TDP

[Beanie]

Aye Darnell's the man Mickey - he's gonna have plenty more highlights to come which will get even more of the voting public onside, but being a black man without black skin is always enough for me

[MickeyPaul]

Sounds a bit racist, Beanster. I had a look at the audition/profile vids too and Rachel seemed to stand out as a bit 'quirky' and likeable. I gather from reading this thread though that she's done feck all. I reckon she'd open up as people left though, if she can hang on long enough. God, I'm such a noob at this.

[Beanie]

Haha, shit, that was a bit racist wasn't it. I really just meant I love the idea of a black man in non-black skin(and it would work vice versa), not that I love that he doesnt have black skin. I love black skin. Honest.

I think Rachel would win this show about once out of 100 times, she's not gonna do anything bar sit in the background and sing 'Happy Happy Happy House, Happy House, Happy House' with Kat(dont make me post the Youtube clip!) and I can't imagine the great unwashed ever voting for someone like her.

Darnell had a bad day yesterday, which explains his drift back to 2nd fav, but I still dont see much competition bar from one of the men coming out of the pack.

Rex's reaction to the eviction tonight and the way he is talking suggests to me he'll walk in the next week or two, so he's one to avoid too IMO - I'll be laying my punt on him off as soon as the market reopens

[Beanie]

Layed Rex @ 13.00 - nice quick profit there

[Beanie]

Levelled out my book again tonight - did not like the way they edited Darnell tonight, kept showing his comments completely out of context(ie showed him talking to Stu saying 'Who are you? I mean who the fuck are you?' when he was just telling a wee story) which makes me think he might get a bit of treatment over the coming weeks(and he prob gives plenty ammo. Not gonna get any mileage out of Mikey's price for a while yet and need Luke or Bex to go before Dale or Stu take the hint about that group...thought they would after Jen's eviction.

Will go for a watching brief over the next few days - the potential new groups forming look pretty complex...

[Beanie]

Time for another runthrough:

First off, I think I've seen enough to count out about half the field - it would take something pretty special for the following to win IMO...

The can't win bunch:

Belinda: - Bizarre character - dreadful insecure and hated already...lots of noms on the way next week and out very soon.

Rebecca: - I can't believe she ever traded at below 20s, the type of person I could never imagine the BB demographic voting for in any significant number.

Maysoon: - Young girl going in late always going to have it all to do - and not interesting enough/funny enough to make any long term impression.

Sara: - Ditto - not playing the game well.

Mo: - Not doing much, no natural fanbase outside the house, and will be back in the firing line inside the house eventually. Looks like no way back.

Lisa: - the sympathy gained from Mario going will last for a week tops - everyone saying that we will see a new Lisa/someone flourishing is a bit bonkers IMO - she's not that interesting, perfectly prepared to have a good bitch, and has no natural support outside the house.

Rachel: - Nice enough, but too nice. Another one that the voting public will never feel enough affection for as she does nothing to merit it in this type of show.

Rex: - he goes 2 ways from here - either walks, having plugged his restaurants enough but not wanting more than that, or continues to be arrogant and fairly nasty as he is just now. He's doing it deliberately(as he's admitted) as he doesnt need the show, other than to promote his restaurant, and the public will never relate to a character like that. Housewives favourite, no-one elses.

The can win but bad value mob:

Kat: - Price beginning to come in again, only because of the question marks over the other runners. Any drift and its Kat that picks up the slack, simply because if it were the final today, she'd probably win. Her problem is that someone will come out of the pack and beat her, I'm almost certain of it. She's in the background of any incident, either crying or unable to get involved, and in any future house incident(and with 8 more weeks there will certainly be a few) she's the support act as others grab the headlines(just look at Darnell's odds crash after spitgate.) As the numbers dwindle, everyone is featured more and more and more and the need to have more to your character is important - she is getting away with it just now because with so many housemates and so much going on, only appearing for 2 mins per night is good enough, but when the hour long show focuses on just 6 or 7, she should look very weak. I'd make her 4/1 at best, as she needs huge help from BB to have any chance.

Mario: Even at 150s I cant make a case. If he can make it to the final and plays the game well then he might just be able to turn himself into enough of a David Brent that the British public will fall in love with him, but at 1.18 to go this week, and likely to be up again, thats a huge if, and he's shown this week that he cant help himself.

Leaving...

Stu: - V insecure, and at the way he's going at the moment, hasn't got much chance. However, the key is that he's not getting many nominations, and so he will have time. Doubt he'll take advantage, but I'll keep him onside for now as I cant see his price going out anytime soon.

Dale: - Favourable editing, and in a year of lowish ratings I think it's key not to oppose the male eye candy. He's a dreadful housemate and dull as dishwater, but I don't think that ever matters to the young female vote, and he has shown a slightly more playful side recently, which if he can maintain, atleast gives him some sort of 'journey'. No nominations coming his way either.

Mikey: - Not much support at the moment, but 2 things are key here I think - a) very few nominations - even the housemates who dislike him aren't nominating him, and b) its very very easy for BB to edit him well(see the Sara chat last night), and given his blindness he's likely to be at the centre of most incidents. Mario going will help.

Luke: As much as I hate the little shit, I think if he makes the final week he wins, mainly because he's been detestable so far yet still seems very well supported. When the house is down to 9, 8, 7, 6 or fewer, and the bitching is a bit more thin on the ground, then the way he gets featured means his support could sky rocket. His 21st birthday could provide a highlight or two, and given his character does have a little journey potential. His problem is that there's a lot of people(Stu, Dale, Mikey, Rachel, Lisa etc) that are much further down the nominations pecking order - so its a huge ask for him to actually get to the final week. Price looks not too bad on that eventuality tho.

Darnell: Price out again - which makes him a back again for me. He's not done enough to get anywhere near winning yet, but he's a fairly strong character, and in any big incidents he's the most likely to be on the 'right(or atleast the viewers favoured)' side - so he could still have some more big nights to come. I dont buy the fears about his temper, that doesnt seem to be based on too much hard evidence(the one time he has lost it so far it looks to have been with good reason.) He's lost his way a little really, but he thinks about things the right way, and in a way that means its easy for him to turn it round and grab highlights while he's doing so.

-------------------------------------

To recap, I will be going with main bets of Darnell, Luke, and Dale, with cheap savers on Mikey and Stu.

4pts Darnell @ 5.90
3pts Luke @ 8.2
1.2pts Dale @ 19.5
1pt Mikey @ 16.00
0.33pts Stu @ 60

[Beanie]

Have layed off the Darnell bet for now @ 7s - he's getting very worked up about Bex staying and I can see a bit of an implosion on the horizon - in the not too distant future either.

I still think he's got strong winning potential, but his price will be double figures fairly soon at this rate.

[MickeyPaul]

I've been catching up on youtube and Darnell seems to be getting a bit too bitchy and snidy for my liking.

I was gonna say Rebecca looked interesting @ 70.00's Don't know why but I imagined her having a decent following as she's a little mental, eccentric and stupid and not particularly bitchy from what I've witnessed. She does my head in personally as do most of them (I'd love to slap that Aussie girl around a bit... THWACK). I was shocked to see 70's available in all honesty but if you say she can't win Beanster I'll take your word for it as I'm a total noob with this.