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Want to Win on Penalties? Pick the Right End.


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Old 08-05-2008, 17:33
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selectabet selectabet is offline
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Want to Win on Penalties? Pick the Right End.

Here's a wee article from my blog I thought you guys might find interesting;

When Rangers qualified for the UEFA Cup final on Thursday they extended an amazing run of penalty kick successes this season. It was the third competition in which Rangers managed to win a game from a shoot-out. But even more remarkably we should all have know that they would win the shoot-out before it even started…

In last month’s 442 magazine I read an interesting letter from Mark Stephenson. He’d noticed a long-standing trend concerning English teams and their records in Penalty Shoot-Outs. Earlier in the competition, Spurs and Everton bowed out of the UEFA on spot-kicks. Nothing new there then, until you realise that both shoot-outs took place on the left of the pitch as you watched on TV. Eh? So what?

Think back to other shoot-outs involving English teams; Germany, Portugal, Argentina - all lost and all taken on the left of your screen. This guy lists another 11 games that are lost by an English side when the pens are on the left, or won when the games are on the right;
  • England v West Germany 1990: Left = Lost
  • England v Germany 1996: Left = Lost
  • England v Portugal 2004: Left = Lost
  • England v Portugal 2006: Left = Lost
  • England v Belgium 1998: Left = Lost
  • England v Argentina 1998: Left = Lost
  • England v Spain 1996: Right = Won
  • Arsenal v Galatasaray 2000: Left = Lost
  • Spurs v Anderlecht 1984: Right = Won
  • Liverpool v Roma 1984: Right = Won
  • Liverpool v AC Milan 2005: Right = Won

I also recall a penalty shoot-out win for Rangers away to PSG - again I think they took them to the right of the screen. But I also remember two shoot-outs involving Celtic. One against Valencia (taken to the right) which they lost and this season against Spartak Moscow (taken to the left) which they won.
So I’m not sure that this trend extends to all British teams - maybe just the English. If anyone has any info on shoot-outs that aren’t listed above let me know in the comments below.

With betting-in-running markets all the rage I’ll be watching this one with interest from now on.
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Old 11-05-2008, 13:07
ONEDUNME ONEDUNME is offline
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Re: Want to Win on Penalties? Pick the Right End.

I've never heard such a pile of bollocks in my entire life.
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Old 11-05-2008, 14:09
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Wittmann 44 Wittmann 44 is offline
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Re: Want to Win on Penalties? Pick the Right End.



I wouldn't be quite as harsh as the ODM but I would think given such a small sample size the stat is meaningless. A more interesting analysis might be on how (1) the home team did and (2) how the teams did shooting into a "home" or" away" end (if that is easily ascertained at a neutral venue).
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Old 12-05-2008, 15:20
crowie crowie is offline
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Re: Want to Win on Penalties? Pick the Right End.

Surely for every team ie (England) who lost while shooting to the left then another team ie who beat them, won?!

And basing it on where the TV cameras are based is just ballacks (copyright ODM!) - as thats all it is.

For example, Everton shot to the left but thats because the cameras are not in the main stand, was actually to the right if looked at from the main stand whereas PSV Spurs had cameras in the main stand.. Likewise England at Wembley v Spain and Germany, left and right from main stand, opposite from where cameras are placed. Yet other games have cameras in main stand so that changes which side is which from a TV point of view.

I think I can say, conclusively, 100% certainty, without any research, that which stand the TV cameras are in (and thats all this is based on) has absolutely hee-haw zero affect on who wins or loses penalty shoot outs.

Basically some teams are good at them, England aren't.
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Old 13-05-2008, 17:30
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Re: Want to Win on Penalties? Pick the Right End.

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
I've never heard such a pile of bollocks in my entire life.
Totally agree mate

I thought it was an interesting point the guy made though but not one I'm likely to put my mortgage on
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