Football Punting - where is the edge?

[Beanie]

Just thought I would stick this up while I remember and before I go to bed - will add to it later this week.

Been reading quite a lot on 'The Wisdom of Crowds' and related studies recently, stimulated by what I observed having looked pretty closely at the markets on Betfair. From what I can see, the markets on Betfair(i'm talking primarily about the liquid ones here) are very strong - based on the widely available information the prices are not significantly different to 'true' %age chance.

I think this has developed over the last few years - an example being in Head to head stats - a few years ago data suggested teams with a strong H2H record v another team were consistently overpriced - recently this value appears to have been eroded, if not eliminated completely.

This is not strictly related to the Wisdom of crowds theory(which obviously has its own flaws too) as its dealing with informed participants, but that's where the interest stemmed from.

Nevertheless, there will always be edges to be found in any market - which is the subject I'm getting at here - where is it?

IMO, given what I've said above, based on the widely available information and liquid markets(or large 'crowd' as it were), I'd suggest that to attempt to find this edge by form/team news/H2H alone - ie all the information that is very widely available and well published - is not impossible, but requires such an effort for such a small edge as to make it hardly worthwhile.

So I've been thinking about where it might be - and from my own experience of playing football, of how I can be playing with good players one week and somehow nothing works, to average ones the next where we are playing really effective football, I'm currently thinking a lot about what you could call 'player interaction.'

Every week i play 5s games and 11s games, and before hand will be having chats with others about the teams and how they think it will go, and many times the far better side on paper, for whatever reason, completely fails to function.

Obviously, professional football teams have far greater continuity, but the point remains IMO - interaction between players on a team, or indeed between players on opposite teams, is IMO one of the fundamental points of football.

You can look at this in a broader sense in terms of a teams style of play, and how this interacts with another particular style. Seen touched on something like this a while ago(or it may have been a slightly more psycholoical approach) and picked out a Middlesborough win v Chelsea. And of course, turning a notion of 'player interaction' into a measurable format and useable system is no easy task.

I'm rambling a bit now, but that's just some musings. I'm looking to virtually chuck the form book out the window, and focus elsewhere.

In a nutshell - 2 things...1) the theory - information that 95% of punters are basing their decisions on in liquid markets is so widely available that if you interpret it correctly you will simply end up with prices not significantly different to those on offer in a 100% market.

2) The proposal - Therefore, look elsewhere(such as something like player interaction.)

[Napoleon Solo]

This is an interesting subject Beanie, and one I myself have been looking at recently! Maybe I'll chip in with my two penneth worth at a later date.

There was one statistic I was looking at regarding Manchester United and player interaction today. Of the three games they've played without Rooney and Ronaldo this season, they've failed to win in all three. The one game they played without Rooney but with Ronaldo, they also lost (against West Ham). Now what is it that makes these two players (Rooney especially) vitally important pieces of a team of otherwise talented individuals?

Perhaps looking at how the players themselves and how the individual players interact as a team, rather than just looking at the team performance (if you follow!) is the way games should be analysed. A far greater amount of research and effort no doubt, but potentially more profitable in the long run?

[kompressaur]

I aint a great writer on this sort of thing Beanie as things take a while to sink in with me. I have almost completely removed statistics from my scottish football betting but i think that could be possibly more to do wuth time. I suppose i look at h2h's etc on a saturday at the end. I prefer to get a feel for whats going on irrespective to league tables (i only view them with about 4 weeks to go). I like trying to tell the dressing room confidence and the opposing styles as you mentioned. I think ive never got away from the '11 men v 11 men' on the park thing which i suppose could possibly be the same as Poker's any 2 cards can win quote. Possibly not a good reasoning but always something to remember. To me the most important thing is a teams performances. Its nothing to do with the results its to do with their potential (rating) on the day with many things considered. I suppose its the price. Thats when the hard bit starts for me. Do i take value singles throughout a season? No i will put a value bet along with an ill thought out bet and probably struggle to show profit if the truth be told over a season.

[kompressaur]

Actually i just read your title and that gave me more of a clue what you were talking about Beanie

Where is the edge? It makes me want to go and remake that Black-eyed peas song "where is the edge..where is the edge" etc etc

I think the edge is where you back on things that are over priced and you back them hard and consistantly. I suppose it leaves little room for error though and youhave to make sure your ratings are complete. No not knowing such and such is out and when you bet against a team as such and such is out that he aint gonna pop up and put your selection 1 down in 20 minutes Im talking Scot's 1-2-3 and likewise with the aussie football. You dont have to know everything you just need to know more than the group of people offering odds in the markets that you have an interest in. You'll have good days and bad but you'll always be solvent enough to enjoy your betting just as you are when you sit down at the poker table after a couple of days off. I cant talk for EPL backers etc though as it seems to me everyone seems to have an opinion.

[crowie]

[quote=Beanie;481556]Nevertheless, there will always be edges to be found in any market - which is the subject I'm getting at here - where is it?/QUOTE]

I think your probably having to specialise in what you know best to get as close to an edge as possible. Don't know if you saw this weeks RP Sport section but Pullein has had winning weekends for the last 14 in a row. Don't think he had one this weekend but his sole bet was a 12/1 on there being 17 corners of more in the Watford game. However if you look at most of his bets now they are on markets such number of corners, cards, etc, markets where the majority of people will not take an interest in but those who specialise can turn a profit. I think I had read he has been in profit for the last 7 or 8 years/seasons.

I think sometimes the more obscure the better. For example there is a couple of tipsters about the net who are consistantly (or were the last I looked) turning decent sized profits. One was a lad called Jeries on Betting Advice, CG's site, who was betting on African/Asian/Middle East football. He came from that area so it would suggest he has a better idea of what is going on there rather than some odds compilier in Austria or Antigua or the US.

Others worth mentioning, dare I say it from Sports Punter, are a lad called ffallen, huge number of volleyball bets but a good yield, sure it was close to 14%. Also a lad called G:G who bets on bandy. Yes, bandy but Pinnacle and Laddies and the likes price it, however he seems to have the edge on them as again over a decent volume of bets his yield was 10%. Finally Mr Christo (Taza D) on NFL. He seems to run his own database of trends and practically all his picks are trend/stat based but again his numbers are obviously throwing up better information than the odds compiliers as again he is ahead by a decent amount.

All 4 of those are punting in areas, well maybe ignoring the NFL, but the rest are punting in areas where its a good shout that me or you would know feck all about, where the odds compliliers would have a better knowledge than us but where the people who are local or who follow the sport will have an edge even on the odds compiliers if they know what they are doing.

Thats where I think your edge is, obscure markest like sports such as bandy or corner betting or cards or whatever. Unfortunately I also think you really need a lot of time on your hands to know these subjects inside out and I doubt a lot of us have that sort of time.

[Beanie]

Agreed crowie - I probably should have stated my thoughts a little better - it's probably the title that's misleading. There's no doubt that in obscure leagues information is still king - bookies knowledge can be patchy, team news can be hard to come by etc so there is definately an edge there, one that can(as you have pointed out) be taken advantage of consistently.

I'm more preoccupied thinking about the big leagues here - no better example than the premiership, where Rooney's every twinge is reported all across the media probably before it even happens. Every punter can call upon every peice of relevant form, team news, game report, fan opinion etc within seconds, and quickly form a set of fairly decent prices, which taken across a large sample which these markets are, IMO leave very little value to be had based on that info.

So the title should really have been something like 'EPL/Primera Liga/Whatever - where is the edge?'

[crowie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Agreed crowie - I probably should have stated my thoughts a little better - it's probably the title that's misleading. There's no doubt that in obscure leagues information is still king - bookies knowledge can be patchy, team news can be hard to come by etc so there is definately an edge there, one that can(as you have pointed out) be taken advantage of consistently.

I'm more preoccupied thinking about the big leagues here - no better example than the premiership, where Rooney's every twinge is reported all across the media probably before it even happens. Every punter can call upon every peice of relevant form, team news, game report, fan opinion etc within seconds, and quickly form a set of fairly decent prices, which taken across a large sample which these markets are, IMO leave very little value to be had based on that info.

So the title should really have been something like 'EPL/Primera Liga/Whatever - where is the edge?'

I personally don't think there is any one bit of information or trend or stat that is being missed by everyone nowadays and which maybe you have access to which will give you an edge.

I don't even think, for leagues like the EPL, that there is a small band of punters who are better informed than everyone else. You could therefore say there is no "edge" to be gained in these leagues?


If you go back to your original post about the wisdom of the crowd then I would say that the Betfair market prices are pretty much an accurate as you can get in pricing up any well punted football game.


If that is the case your going to get an edge, pricewise, either by getting a better price than what Betfair says is the correct price by betting elsewhere, which as you well know can be done most weekends by simply scanning price comparison sites (I have only had 40 bets more at Betfair than Pinnacle this season). There is a good chance that there is someone out there thats pricing better for a particular game.


Or you dispense with the whole "I have to get an edge" arguement completely and go with what your opinion says. Which is effectively what value is, isn't it, just your opinion on a game/price? There is no definitive mathematical formula to accurately predict a price in a football game because there is always a human element involved. The best you can do is make an opinion, a judgement on the game and if your right more often than your wrong you should be a winner.


After all Betfair is basically your opinion against someone elses.


You see a game, you think team x will win, you think 2.00 is an acceptable price to back them at, you do so. Just because hundreds of punters are willing to lay team x at 2.00 doesn't mean they are right and you are wrong. Because just as sure as there will be hundreds of punters saying I think team x is a lay at 2.00 then there will be also hundreds saying team x is a back at 2.00. In the end it will come down to how good your judgement is of the teams involved.


I think I am going round in circles now but I also think you are searching for a "holy grail" which doesn't actually exist in EPL (or heavily punted leagues) terms to be honest. I don't think there is anything different out there that one or another of us hasn't considered at any one time.

If there is though, and you find it, drop me a PM

[Wittmann 44]

I'd agree with everything Crowie says. I'd probably go further and say that for all bar the truly exceptional and very patient it is almost impossible to make money on the major leagues in soccer. When everyone has access to the same facts and there is enough liquidity in a market I think that ultimately the market will settle at what are so close to being the fair odds that it makes very little difference. Throw in the overround with the bookies and the commision with Betfair and you're behind that vital few % before you start.

You can mitigate against this to a certain extent - some of the methods have already been outlined but no harm in mentioning them again.

Firstly I think that you have to make your own price up in advance of the vent you are betting on. This is vital if you're going to get any early value that is going (if it is going). When bookies make the few mistakes they tend to make on well backed leagues it is when they are first out of the blocks. If a price looks out of line early then get on it because it will be gone soon.

Secondly the more accounts the better. When you're margins are wafer thin the difference of 2 or 3% here and there can be the difference between finsihing a small bit up or a small bet down. If you dopn't have netteller get it. It is essential IMO.

Thirdly as Crowie says specialisation is vital. The main weapon you have as a punter over a bookie is that they will price up hundreds of events every weekend and the care is lavished on the leagues where they are most exposed. A cursory look on Betfair on a Saturday will show massive volumes on the average Premiership game which tails of dramatically as you go down the leagues . A winner in the Blue Sq conference at evens pays the same as a winner at evens in the Champions League but because the latter is on TV and gets a two page spread in the Post and is all over the news it assumes far more importance to many punters than events where they have a much better chance of getting an advatange.

One problem I see with what Crowie mentions about stuff liek Bandy and so on is that you start winning any money at all and its goodnight Vienna very very quickly. You can go down the foodchain when you bet (and I am all in favor of it) but too far down and you're standing out like a sore thumb waiting to get that "we've decided to close your account" letter.

So the title should really have been something like 'EPL/Primera Liga/Whatever - where is the edge?'

I'd say in the main markets there is absolutely none 99% of the time. In the wild and woolier markets there might be a small edge from time to time but as I said at the start my gut feeling is that almost no-one is making any money betting in the big leagues.

[crowie]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

I'd say in the main markets there is absolutely none 99% of the time. In the wild and woolier markets there might be a small edge from time to time but as I said at the start my gut feeling is that almost no-one is making any money betting in the big leagues.

But surely someone has to be making money on them Wittmann, otherwise everyone would be breaking even? Are we just talking punters here ie Betfair punters, punters who bet at normal bookies? Surely there are some folk out there who are making money because if there are losers then there has to be winners?

I have a site that I reference most weekends which has had 382 bets in the EPL to the end of the year and have a yield over all these bets of 15%. I haven't followed every single bet but I do follow a fair few and I would say I am in profit from following their selections.

Note I am not claiming these as my own picks so therefore can't say I am making money out of backing these leagues of my own back/opinion, but, to paraphrase, I know a site who can They are also up 16% on CL games and 17% on international fixtures. Thats pretty good going in any circumstances but especially so IMO on a league with as heavy coverage as the EPL. Their picks are all stat/trend based as well, very rarely referring to team news.

I do think it comes back to is your opinion better than others. If you think that practically everyone is working off the the same info, stats and trends then it does come down to opinions and judgement.

[Wittmann 44]

I probably didn’t explain myself very well and didn’t make enough of a distinction between exchanges and bookies. The fact that there might not be any edge does not mean people might not be making money in the short to medium term through a combination (in varying measures) of luck, good judgement, early price taking and arbing or quarbing.

Longer term I would stand over my claim that most people are not making money on the major leagues (at either bookies or exchanges although I would hazard an unsupported guess that more make money on the exchanges). The average punter loses 13% at a bookies , a figure which is pretty much universal. A small minority of punters lose massive %s and a small number make some money (some more than others). I would think that the better punters do not generally make their money in oversaturated markets like the EPL. Again I have no empirical way of proving that but for the reasons you yourself have mentioned above I think that leagues like the EPL are the worst places to pick a fight with the bookies.

I think 16% is an exceptional performance but having said that 382 bets though it seems a lot I would still argue doesn’t necessarily mean a lot. Joe Buchdahl’s book I think cites a figure of at least 1,000 bets before any measure of statistical significance can be inferred. If they kept that up for another 2 years I would be convinced as opposed to being slightly sceptically impressed.

The most famous tennis betting site On the punt made money consistently for over two years and a few hundred bets with yields of nearly double figures (without betting at Betfair). They went subscription over 18 months ago and the wheels promptly came off and have not gone back on. I don’t know was it the added pressure or what but they are well on the way to losing everything they had built up.

I do think it comes back to is your opinion better than others. If you think that practically everyone is working off the the same info, stats and trends then it does come down to opinions and judgement.

I agree, especially in markets where there is very little hidden information. In the long run I think in a market with full information if you consistently make a profit you are probably (maybe without even knowing it) value betting every time you make a selection.