Ever feel like quitin..what way do you gamble?

[crowie]

, cheers for that Beanie, I really should save it somewhere so can paste if for future questions like Cinnys.

Cinny,

Not much else to add but just to emphasise the following.

Stick to what you know - the Benfica bet for example, how many players were they missing, or the opposition missing etc. How much did you know about the game bar the odds and league positions and form?

Your bank - fair enough £100 is your bank but I would say staking up to 10% of it in one go is a possible way to going bust pretty quickly. It might sound "shite" but if you were wanting to be more serious you should really be looking at £2 a bet tops if you want to not go bust. Mainly because we all have bad weekends and its very easy to rack up 8 or 9 losing bets from 10 or 11 selections over a weekend.

Look at a variety of bets - consider stuff like Asian Handicap bets or over/unders. Also consider laying teams if you feel one side won't get beat but you aren't definite they will win. Instead lay the opposition and get the draw on your side. Will be a smaller return but a return is better than a loss.


Overall, its a long term thing, don't think you are going to double your bank in a month. The important thing is profit because that grows banks and that in turn allows you to increase stakes and in turn grow banks...........


Ohh aye, and as I said before, if you can get money together from elsewhere, screw the fuck out of bookies free bet offers. Centrebet this week were (still are) doing an Aussie open offer. Whack £20 on any Aussie Open bet and they give you a free £20. You could back Federer, hell you could even cover your bet with a lay of him on Betfair for minimal cost and then the £20 is yours to do with what you want. Either take a chance on a bet you fancy or again back and lay to guarantee a return (I did Cilic 3 Blake 2, backed at 7.0 at Centrebet, laid at 7.0 at Betfair, £17 in my pocket whatever happened).

Hell I have been playing bingo this week, all with their stakes. Took about £60 out of 2 bingo sites at a risk to me of fuck all. Thats all money in my bank for nothing really.

[Cinny]

Thankx for the info once again starting from today im gunna not bet as often, just bets where im well informed on and use just singles for the next month or so and see how i get on. Also matches where i dont know a lot on im going to stay away from and especially horses although i like baking from time to time lose a lot more than i win on. Im also going to keep to small bets as yous said and make no more than £5 bets out of the bank.

[kompressaur]

Take up poker Cinny. It's cheap and more exciting than football betting ive found.

[Cinny]

Originally Posted by kompressaur

Take up poker Cinny. It's cheap and more exciting than football betting ive found.

love poker wouldnt be too fond of playing it online though..play regularly enough in tournaments up in belfast when down at uni. Always super craic. Got some free money off some poker sites but can't seem to control myself playing online and always end up losing it

[engineer]

Originally Posted by Cinny

Thankx for the info once again starting from today im gunna not bet as often, just bets where im well informed on and use just singles for the next month or so and see how i get on. Also matches where i dont know a lot on im going to stay away from and especially horses although i like baking from time to time lose a lot more than i win on. Im also going to keep to small bets as yous said and make no more than £5 bets out of the bank.

Well, I had the same problem with big accums a couple of years ago. Yes, I've hit 6-folds paying 80/1 and even more, but the profit was always going down the drain in the next days.

And about the horses - in the last year I tried to get involved in horse racing as I found it great to have big prized winners each 10 minutes or so in the afternoons. Unfortunately winners stopped comming and that was where I was losing a big part of my profit.
Equestrian betting is for the few people that know all about it, can read form, assess the going, abilities etc...

Now I've concentrated on laying horses - of course the profit is much smaller but I did make some profit at last.
But the best advice here is to stay away from horse betting if you rely on your luck only and knowing sod about it.

I think it's the same with komp's poker, but maybe others will contend another opinion.

[O_Bad]

Hi, i'm new here ,and i would like to thank you guys for the very useful information posted here , i have read it two days ago, and executed it yesterday with very much success.
(3 singles and one acca, 1-Man Utd to win by more than two goals 1.60*won 2-Chelsea to win by 1 goal 4.50*won 3-Liverpool to win*lost and number 4 was the acca - Fiorentina - Lazio (Over2.5) 1.8*won , Juventus - Inter (Over2.5) 1.77*won and finally Rangers win by more than two goal 2.10*won)
If this was all in an acca i would have hated my self so much for putting liverpool in it, but at the end of the day i wasn't so mad at liverpool cuz i made 3 folds of what i staked and i can't be happier.
in the past i used to play acca only , and sometimes get it right if im lucky but most of the time its a "Damn this team let me down, or why did you have to draw in the injury time." unfortunately i only have access to a local bookie and he is a total rip off, so i can't get Thee best Odds but still im happy with what is provided, im fairly good when it comes to football, i tend to do alot of homework, research and so forth.
On With the Profits and Down With the Bookies :D

[rockshark]

great thread folks, lot of sense spoken. It is a matter of keeping it simple and finding value, cant see in any value @1.5.

A tip if you feel the need to bet and get the urge, try and resist if you really have to then might as well make it a decent punt (as its going to be an under researched bet) and go for the minimum stakes at a over priced market.

For a fun bet I find correct score 3-0 market is most overpriced especially in a well matched game.

In any successful investment it is best practice to control your losses and keep them low and stable, fixed stake is the best way to achieve this imo.

[PremierTips]

Hey, but don't forget its still okay to do ONE 4/5/6 games acca every weekend for a couple of quid. Check out every SINGLE bet you've chosen and then narrow it down, taking out all the risky ones (in your opinion), then take out the semi-risky ones, then do an acca with whats left.
Thats what i do.

[Wittmann 44]

Hey, but don't forget its still okay to do ONE 4/5/6 games acca every weekend for a couple of quid. Check out every SINGLE bet you've chosen and then narrow it down, taking out all the risky ones (in your opinion), then take out the semi-risky ones, then do an acca with whats left.
Thats what i do.

Yeah it’s ok if you want to lose money in the long term. If you take out the risky ones and the semi risky ones you are I presume left with the dead certs. And they always come in don’t they?

I’d love to see you make a profit doing regular 4/5 and 6 timers. If its a low stakes fun bet for money you don't mind losing then fair enough but its a losing strategy.

[Hippy Dave]

Despite what people say, it IS possible to make profit through multiples, whether that be doubles, trebles or whatever.

HOWEVER, the only way this can be done is if every single price is value on it's own.

For example

Team 1 has 50% chance of winning, bookie A offers 2.10, bookie B offers 2.15
Team 2 has 75% chance of winning, bookie A offers 1.40, bookie B offers 1.16

Simple maths tells you that the true odds of team A should be 2.00 and team B 1.33.

It also says that the true chance of this double coming in is 37.5% (equates to odds of somewhere around 2.65)

Bookies A's odds for the double are 2.94 - this is undoubtedly a value price.

Bookie B offers a better price for Team 1 but the double odds are only 2.49 - clearly bad value, and the bookie is going to win lots of money.

Now, with bookie A, 40 weeks in a row this scenario comes up.
You decide to place singles, 1pt on each selection (team 1 and 2) - so a total outgoing of 80pts

As expected team 1 wins 50% (20 times) and team 2 75% (30 times)

Your total profit = 4pts (2pts on team 1 and 2pts on team 2)

If you had staked the same amount but in doubles (2pt doubles x 40 weeks = 80pts)

As expected the double wins 37.5% of the time (15 times)

Total profit = 8.2pts


Repeat the exercise for bookie B and you get the following stats

Singles = -2.2pts
Doubles = -5.3pts


This just goes to show that as much as multiple bets on bad value prices multiplies the bad value, the same bets on good value prices mulitply the good value.

[Wittmann 44]

Despite what people say, it IS possible to make profit through multiples, whether that be doubles, trebles or whatever.

HOWEVER, the only way this can be done is if every single price is value on it's own.

Good point Dave but it is hard getting value on single bets without muddying the waters further with seeking value in multiples.

When people generally get involved in multiples they pile into the short priced home wins in football and they are generally the very games that are priced fairly on the nail.

I'd recommend Joe Buchdahl's book for a good analysis of the dangers of multiples.

[Hippy Dave]

Yeah, the way most people back mulitples if is a ridiculous strategy. Worth bearing in mind the odd double or treble though if you find 2 or 3 value selections at the same bookie. Not a bet to be looking for, but every serious punter should use it when the opportunity arises.

I haven't read that book, but most of the betting theory I know is down to Joe Buchdal from the days he used to post in the Systems forum over at PL