Your best betting trends

[selectabet]

Guys, I'm not sure if this is right place for this thread but I'm looking for some help;

I'm trying to find the best betting trends for a post on my blog.

For starters, the one I mentioned earlier on Saturday about teams that beat the Old Firm, going on to lose their next game. Hearts became the 6th domestic team in a row to defeat Rangers in the last year, only to play their next game away from home and get beat. Surely too much of a coincidence.

I'm looking for anything like that you've noticed as a trend and if you have any stats to back them up then all the better.

Cheers, sb.

[Wittmann 44]

Hiya Selectabet

I'd be slightly wary of reading too much into a very small sample although I'd agree that it is an interesting little stat.

One that I know that was profitable a few years back (when I bet on soccer) was opposing teams that had a large distance travelled in the midweek in the UEFA cup in their following league games. You'd have to restrict it to teams with small squads as the Man Utds, Celtics and Arsenals of the world have enough on the bench not to have major issues.

Other trends in a similar vein are opposing teams that have pulled of a cup shock midweek as their can often be a letdown when they get back to the grind of the league. I'm not sure how much work has been done on this but I'd be surprised if it wasn't possible to make a small profit this way.

[selectabet]

Cheers Wittman,

I could only get my hands on last year's results from the BBC, hence the small sample. Can you recommend anywhere that I could get the necessary info to go back say 10 years?

I hadn't picked up on the distance traveled affecting results before. Will keep and eye out for that one.

Another one that does seem a bit of a trend is when teams appoint a new manager they seem to win their first game under him - or am I imagining it?

[Kop66]

Another one that does seem a bit of a trend is when teams appoint a new manager they seem to win their first game under him - or am I imagining it?

Avram Grant couldn't manage it on Sunday, i think it depends on circumstances with that one more, i think there may be something in it after a couple of games in charge though.

[selectabet]

I remember reading a while ago that James Beattie goes on scoring 'bursts' - I don't think he has that great a goals:games ratio so it would be interesting to see the pattern of when all his goals were scored. Anyone got any info like this? I note he's score 5 in the last 3, might be worth a small punt on Tuesday.

Another one I remember is that Ian Wright scored on every club debut he made. Again, not sure if thats correct. Anyone got any others like that?

[Wittmann 44]

Another one that does seem a bit of a trend is when teams appoint a new manager they seem to win their first game under him - or am I imagining it?

There was a survey done in Europe (Holland or Germany possibly) that investigated this and found that there was almost no new manager effect. I'll post the results up when I get access to my home PC tonight.

For results what exactly are you looking for ?

[selectabet]

Ideally, I want to identify common betting myths (say 10 of them) in relation to trends and attempt to prove whether they are true or not. It would then be a good reference piece for all of us.

I'll need access to various things depending on what myth needs investigating, but a good starting point would be somewhere I could access historical results.

Thanks Wittman

[rcgills]

Some of these might be of some use, Selectabet:

BetExplorer - Soccer statistics - tables, statistics, Soccer results, odds - select country from list on the right, gives list going back to the late 90s
www.soccerbase.com - The Internet Soccer Database - can choose to view leagues from any year, results by team, etc. English and Scottish leagues only
Web Oficial de la Liga de Fútbol Profesional - for Spain. Click on Historia de la Liga, then Consulta el calendario de una temporada. Choose your year from the top drop-down list, ignore the middle drop-down box, then from the bottom boxes choose your team in the left-hand box and ignore the right-hand box. Will give you that team's results for the chosen year.

[selectabet]

Thanks for that. All I need now are some trends to investigate. Any suggestions people?

[Wittmann 44]

Suggested Trendsfficeffice" />

Teams that get beaten heavily (> 2 goals) (home or away) and how they do next game

Teams that get win heavily (> 2 goals) (home or away) and how they do next game

Teams that lose from being ahead at HT

Teams that win from being behind at HT

Teams missing key players (goalkeeper, captain, top scorer)

Teams that pull off shock wins (> 3 odds) and how they get on next match

Teams that suffer shock losses (< 1.5 odds) and how they get on next match

[Wittmann 44]

Another one that does seem a bit of a trend is when teams appoint a new manager they seem to win their first game under him - or am I imagining it?

The study was carried out in the Bundesliga over a 35 year period - by a woman called Alexandra Tippenhauer. Her dad had been sacked by Bielfeld about 20 years pereviously and she use it as a basis for her work which found that there was no appreciable difference between the 12 games before a manager was sacked and the 12 games after with a new manager. There was a similar study in Holland (I think in the University of Gronigen but I can't find the source).

The Racing Post guide to Betting on Sport has a good football section.

[crowie]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Teams that pull off shock wins (> 3 odds) and how they get on next match

There is something about this trend in a betting book I read a few years ago. It was called "After The Lord Mayors Show" trend where teams who caused big cup upsets came back down to earth in their next perfomance and didn't produce the results you would expect.

I suppose Coventry and Leicester may be worth watching this weekend. Great results midweek, no matter the strength of the home sides - but will they be able to follow these performances on at the weekend?

[selectabet]

Well last night's result at Easter Road seems to back up the Curse of the Old Firm trend. Motherwell were about 7/2 to win there last night.

[selectabet]

Right, I finally did a bit of research into this and the results were quite interesting. Basically, teams that beat the old firm generally don't win their next game. Theres more on it here and you can download my spreadsheet with all the results on it.

Remember Hibs are away to Motherwell tomorrow after beating Rangers last time out so I'd say back Motherwell based on this trend.

[selectabet]

Originally Posted by selectabet

Right, I finally did a bit of research into this and the results were quite interesting. Basically, teams that beat the old firm generally don't win their next game. Theres more on it here and you can download my spreadsheet with all the results on it.

Remember Hibs are away to Motherwell tomorrow after beating Rangers last time out so I'd say back Motherwell based on this trend.

Motherwell 2 Hibs 1 FT. Motherwell 11/5 at Stan James. Looks like the curse has struck again!