MLB - A Punters guide

[El Grande Duder]

Ok, baseball is not even close to being a popular punters sport, but i love it so im gonna attempt to educate the masses a bit

There are many numbers and figures involved when studying baseball games, and there is no right or wrong way to come to a conclusion, each to their own. Listed below are some of the stats that are generally useful to look at when punting, plus a brief explanation of what they mean and why i deem them to be important. (To keep it funky, red stats are pitcher stats, blue starts are batting stats, and black stats are other variables involved)

ERA - Earned Run Average
Basically how many runs a pitcher gives up per 9 innings pitched. I only really bother with this stat for starters since they throw the most innings over the season. The lower the better obviously, no good backing a team if their starting pitcher isnt even good enough to keep it close.

WHIP - Walks + Hits per inning pitched
This is a pitching stat i use for all pitchers, its as important to relievers as it is to starters. This is more important than ERA over the long term for me, because a pitcher might get lucky with some double plays and caught stealing etc etc, but over the long term a pitcher with a high WHIP will give up a ton of baserunners and it will hurt in the end.

OPS - Onbase% + Slugging%
This is the offensive stat that over the course of a season correlates to runs as close as possible. Teams with high OPS generally score the most runs since it rewards home run hitters but also places value on those scrappy doubles hitters and leadoff men who get paid to get on base rather than hit home runs. You can sometimes find good value in looking for teams with an OPS above their season level over the past few games as this shows they are on a hot streak offensively.

GB/FB - Groundball to Flyball ratio
I know what you're thinking, doesn't matter if its on the ground or in the air an out is an out, well WRONG!! If a pitcher gives up a ton of flyballs and is making a start in a hitters park (more later) then those flyballs become homers and triples easier. Look for those high flyball guys with good ERAs making starts in hitters paradise parks and good value can often be found.

The weather - God doing his part to make things fun!!
This is a simple factor but is still way often overlooked in baseball betting. If there is a 50mph wind blowing out from home plate those Texas league singles and shallow fly balls easily become long doubles and home runs, if the wind is blowing towards home plate then those 540ft home runs easily become routine 300ft flyballs. Always check the weather when backing totals.

Umpires - Ahhh the umpires, gotta love them!!
Umpires are like the rest of us, human. They make mistakes and call games differently. Check out who the home plate umpire is before betting on totals. Some umpires like to call a tight strike zone which favours the hitters, others are less inclined to give the benefit to the hitters and call wide zones, often making the batters chase pitches they wouldn't normally go after.

Park Factors - God created humans equal, not ballparks!!
This is something for which i always consider when making picks. Some ballparks are just hitters paradise', thin air makes the ball fly further so expect trouble if your pitcher is at high altitude and hes a flyballer. Some ballparks are huge with spacious foul ground and thin power alleys meaning its hardest to put the balls in play. Below i have listed the top parks at the end of each scale, consider this when making a bet.

Top 5 hitters parks - Arizona (Chase Field). Colorado (Coors Field). Texas (Arlington ballpark). Philadelphia (Citizens Bank Park). Cincinatti (Great American ballpark)

Top 4 pitchers parks - Atlanta (Turner Field). San Diego (PETCO park), LA Dodgers (Dodger Stadium). Oakland (Network Associates Colisseum)

Other factors to take into account are what parks are favourable to what kind of hitters, Torontos dome for example favours doubles and line drive hitters, Fenway in Boston favours power lefties because of the short power alleys down the RF line.

SBs - Stolen Bases
An obvious stat, but one to be watched. If a team gets on base and steals alot it creates pressure on the pitcher and throws him off his rhythm. If a low strikeout pitcher is facing a high OBP team, look out for them getting on base and stealing or creating hit and run opportunites.

Those are the main keys that i use when making baseball bets, Hope thats of some use to someone out there or someone at least reads it.

..and please....Don't have nightmares!!