Nascar Thread.

[kosar19]

I have narrowed this weeks race in Richmond down to 6/7 Drivers who I expect will be vying for the victory. The problem I have is that this is another impound race, so with only 1 practice session and then Qualifying, most teams will need to have the cars in race set up from the get go. Those teams who need to qualify on speed will again forsake race set up and go all out to get themselves in the race. They have no chance of winning here, but they could fill some of the top 10 spots on the grid. As this race is normally won by a car who qualifies in the top 10, I need to see how this all pans out.
Of the drivers I like this week, Kyle B and Denny are among the top tier, along with JJ, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer and Mark Martin (and Kevin Harvick at a push). No value among the shorter price ones at the moment with the books who are out, but hope to see a little better when a few others show their hand. Be Lucky Kosar19

[kosar19]

Just has to be done (for values sake)
Mark Martin 80/1 Skybet

[kosar19]

Well the 80/1 did not last long, nor did the 25/1 and 20/1. Martin is now 8/1 (a bit drastic) with Sky.
I will be back this evening once I have seen a few things to give my final thoughts (and try and breakdown my top 7 to my FINAL 3)
Have had two interest bets so far (BURTON 28/1 and MARTIN 80/1) based on value. They could make it into my top 3

[kosar19]

Very disappointed in Sky Bet who have taken the decision to use the palpable rule (thought I could see it coming when they made the cut all the way down to the silly 8/1 price, so they can hide behind the fact it should have been that price and not 80/1). The fact they went 25/1 and then 20/1 proved it was just poorly priced by their compiler. Even more gutted when I see Martin is 2nd fastest in 1st practice today.

[MickeyPaul]

Bloody hell, kosar. 80/1 to 8/1 Yep, I think their going 25/1 then 20/1 before the 8/1 proves they were a bit lost. Bastards have no honour. I feel for you, brother.

[kosar19]

Originally Posted by kosar19

On to Richmond this week, where I have my eye on someone who hopefully should be around the 20/1 mark

Yes I am absolutely gutted, as from my previous post for this race, it was Mark Martin who I was alluding too. Normally can be had for around the 33/1 mark, this is one of the races that he comes into his own. Could not believe the 80/1 quote, but it was obvious that they had the start list from Nascar.com and used Oddschecker to price from. With no price on Oddschecker they just assumed he was any price and put no thought into it. With Martin starting on the front row and proving he has one of the cars to beat, I am now loath to put him up as one of my selections even though 16/1 is available with Blsq as of now. So this will no doubt come back to bite me but
*** Denny Hamlin 6/1
** Kyle Busch 6/1
* Kevin Harvick 14/1

[kosar19]

Originally Posted by kosar19

I have narrowed this weeks race in Richmond down to 6/7 Drivers who I expect will be vying for the victory. The problem I have is that this is another impound race, so with only 1 practice session and then Qualifying, most teams will need to have the cars in race set up from the get go. Those teams who need to qualify on speed will again forsake race set up and go all out to get themselves in the race. They have no chance of winning here, but they could fill some of the top 10 spots on the grid. As this race is normally won by a car who qualifies in the top 10, I need to see how this all pans out.
Of the drivers I like this week, Kyle B and Denny are among the top tier, along with JJ, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer and Mark Martin (and Kevin Harvick at a push). No value among the shorter price ones at the moment with the books who are out, but hope to see a little better when a few others show their hand. Be Lucky Kosar19

Gutted all around this weekend, with first Skybet playing dirty, and then my no1 fancy Denny Hamlin completely dominating the race (led a record 381 laps of the 400), but his chances blown by a slow puncture. Kyle Busch finishes 2nd to Clint Bowyer (who qualified poorly, so left out of my final equations, despite being a great night driver). And my nemisis for this week Mark Martin finishing 3rd(I hate you Skybet)

[MickeyPaul]

Sometimes you don't get the luck your work deserves, kosar but terrific work all the same. I'm even developing a slight interest in Nascar!

[trickrick]

Unlucky..Still - you're posting some good stuff Kosar..

Just a thought..Shouldnt this thread be moved to the 'American Sports Betting' Forum?

[kosar19]

You are correct Trickrick, I should have had this all started in the American Sport section (but how many will view it in there). I suppose if it gets moved, I may bring a few of you in to enjoy my US Football thoughts once the season starts.

Next weeks Nascar race has very similar attributes to last nights event. So I think we know who I will be putting up

[trickrick]

It make sense, and it also leaves a link from the other sports forum to direct you here, so it's been moved..

[kosar19]

Well my faith in the good sense of British bookmakers has been restored, as Skybet have decided to pay out at the 80/1 Mark Martin. I think they could have in good conscience have used the Palpable error rule if they just went from 80/1 to 8/1, but the fact they did a number of changes, suggested they had a flimsy argument.
Anyway thank you Skybet for seeing sense.

[kosar19]

Dodge Challenger 500- Darlington Sat Night (12.20am UK)

Will be giving my final thoughts on this Friday morning, as I have 6 drivers in the frame at the moment. However I must suggest you take a small ew interest on Martin Truex at 66/1 with BL SQ. Finished 5th and ran well last week, and with a similar track and the fact he was a 12/1 shot come race time last week, this price is way way out. Would have him at 20/1 on my tissue, and with 4 places up for grabs, well worth a little dabble.
Be Lucky K19

[kosar19]

Right, no point in delaying the obvious, and with the 1st practice already under our belt, this weeks nominations are.
*** Denny Hamlin (7/1 BLSQ)
** Kyle Busch (13/2 Sky)
* Dale Earnhardt (6/1 General)

After last weeks domination by Hamlin, which due to a late puncture preventing him leading all 400 laps to victory, he just has to be the call on a similar track. Only ran 13 laps in early practice tonight,but still posted the 2nd fastest time (behind team mate Ky Busch). The Gibbs cars look so dominent on these tracks at the moment, that I was close to calling all 3 team mates as my selections. Have left off Tony Stewart, but would not put people off backing him at a generous 12/1 (dont think that will be there come tomorrow). Just under the radar are Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Martin Truex

[kosar19]

Final Happy Hour practice is over (normally in race set up for this) and the 3 fastest are
Hamlin
Busch
Earnhardt


Would again emphasis that Martin Truex (even if you have missed the 66/1) is still terrific value at 33/1. Has ran well in all Practice sessions, and he always qualifies well, so will be close to half those odds tomorrow morning if he is among the top 10 on the grid (which I fully expect him to be). Qualifying takes place in the next 2 hours.
Would point out that one of the favs Jimmie Johnson has wrecked his no1 car, and is in his backup (which he has also stuck in the wall). Busy trying to get it worthy for tonights qualifying.