[ThunderCelt]

Aldershot v Northampton
Under 2.5, 31/40, Bet365, 4 Units
Have to agree with much of what LionStory has written, even if we decide on different bets.

Northampton's player shortage is well documented, although how many of the absentees reported would have been starters is questionable. They do look a little light on depth though. Also, I'm not convinced they've replaved Guttridge (Aldershot) or Akinfewa (Gillingham). That said, Northampton have managed credible draws in three of their four games, with the blip being at Torquay, who have made an exceptional start. The Torquay hammering was the only game out of Northampton's four to date to have gone over.

Aldershot have a near-full squad to choose from, but Kevin Dillon's insistance on playing one up front, even at home, has drawn critical comment from some fans. He has said he will continue with the 4-2-3-1 system though. This 'solid' outlook can probably take some of the blame for our draw with Stevenage last week, and our scrambled victory over Southend previously. None of our four games have hit 2.5 yet, and I do fear that if Northampton come to get a draw they might just smother our attack.

The price on Aldershot has been falling with Northampton's injury news, and while I see the Shots as the most likely winners I struggle to see any value in the home or away prices. I do see the draw as better value than the 30% or so offered, but the stats and what I know about Aldershot's style suggest that unders is slightly better value. Having said that, I do find unders/overs difficult to predict so it's smaller stakes than Mr Kelly suggests!