San Marino - Holland `over 4.5 goals` @ 2.08 (Betfair)
These 2 teams have met 4 times, all in european qualifying unsurprisingly - and they`ve resulted in an aggregate scoreline of 23-0 , with the games ending 4-0 & 6-0 in Holland, and 6-0 & 7-0 in San Marino. In both the games in San Marino the games were only 1-0 at HT ! So you can see how badly they tire.
In recent games San Marino have managed to lose 3-0 Slovenia, 7-0 Czech Rep, 10-0 Poland, 5-0 Slovenia, & 7-0 Slovakia. They dont have any punch at all ,and their latest game, against an italian amateur team in Foligno, they amazingly won 3-2 but still conceded 2!
Holland will realise that although they arent usually the biggest scorers in the world, the other teams in the group , Sweden, Finland, and Hungary, will look to plunder goals against the minnows, so Holland cant afford to sit back and take a nice easy 2-0 win. Theyve recalled Van Nistelrooy back to cover for the injured Van Persie,and he`ll be very eager to get on the scoresheet and narrow the gap on Patrick Kluiverts all time Holland goals of record of 40 (He`s on 33 currently). Its also Mark Van Bommels 1st game as captain after Giovanni Van Bronkhorst retired, and they`ll be eager to impress. Rafael Van Der Vaart, Wesley Sneidjer, Klaas Jan Huntelaar also start, in a stromg looking dutch team. Only 2 of the San Marino squad have over 40 caps in a very inexperienced line up (which may explain recent scorelines).
All in all, Holland will win, we all know that. And it will probably be around the 4-5 goal winning margin as the hosts tire - but they`re much more likely to get 6 or 7 than just get 3-4 imvho and the 2.08 is a shade of value and well worth a bet.
Grim
