Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL
Last bet for next two weeks (break next weekend):
30.08.2010, 20:15h | 2. Bundesliga | Fortuna Dusseldorf - Hertha Berlin
I just can not miss out this bet, although it took a long time for me to arrive at a decision. I can not imagine that Hertha will lose tonight. A home win will be nearly impossible, I will try to explain you why. First of all I will start with home teams lineup as usual:
Ratajczak - Weber, Lukimya-Mulong, Langeneke, van den Bergh - Costa, Zoundi, Christ, Dum - Torghelle, Jovanovic
Fortuna Dusseldorf did a big mistake in the summer break. Last season their great success based on their phenomenal defense, mainly on Bamba Anderson (Dusseldorf received only 1 goal against at home in 2010 so far). He was the best defender from the 2. Bundesliga by far but Borussia Mönchengladbach bought him. Instead of him they bought Lukimya, an average defender from a 3. Liga team who showed poor performances so far. He is just not nearly as good as Bamba Anderson and as we said above, Dusseldorfs success only based on their great defense. Having a great defense and counter attacking at home - that was their style of playing at home. In any case their defense is not their strength anymore but their weak point. The midfield was their weakpoint last season, their midfield players were not able to connect the gap beetween defense and offensive. But they did not correct the defects. They bought Thiago Rockenbach da Silva (solid player from a 3. Liga team) and Sascha Dum who failed at Energie Cottbus last year. Zoundi is bad in my opinion, playmaker Christ is solid but not comparable to players from Hertha. Important midfield player Fink teared a muscle and thus he will be out, team captain Lambertz was injured for a while and he is not back too his old form (not even sure if he will play tonight). Their strikers Torghelle and Jovanovic are in a crisis at the moment. Torghelle was very poor in Cottbus last weekend, he missed out big opportunities, Jovanovic was injured for a long time and he is still not as good as before he is injury (Dusseldorf lost their best strikers Oehrl and Harnik by the way).
Moreover the atmosphere in Dusseldorf is not as good as last year. Dusseldorfs test games were poor, I have seen them a few times and their bad defense shocked me. Thus they lost in the "DFB Cup" against an average 3. Liga team (TuS Koblenz) with 0:1 and away in Cottbus with 0:2. I saw the game in Cottbus. I admit that they had a couple of good counter opportunities but the game tonight will be different because they will have to make the game. But Cottbus' strong offensive exploit Dusseldorfs weak defense and therefore Cottbus won 2:0, quite deserved.
Concluding we can say that Dusseldorf lost a few important players: defense boss Bamba Anderson, best strikers Oehrl and Harnik, midfield substitutes Sieger, Heidinger and Caillas and a couple of other players. Dusseldorf sold the heart of the team. That was definitely the wrong decision.
The fans start to be critical with Dusseldorf (last year Dusseldorf fell into euphoria). "Only" 30-35k fans in the stadium, not as much as it would have been last year.
Let's have a detailed look on Herthas situation, starting with their possible line-up today:
Aerts - Lell, Hubnik, Mijatovic, Kobiashvili - Perdedaj, Niemeyer - Ramos, Domovchiyski, Rukavytsya - Friend
Of course Herthas debut against Oberhausen (3:2) was not a fast-selling item. Oberhausen is stronger than last year, Hertha was nervous and they conceded an early goal. The defense has big, big quality but their defense is not well-practised so far. But it will be better from game to game. Look at their names, Lell, a player who was regular for FC Bayern Munich, Kobisvhili who played more than 200 games for Schalke 04 and so on. The atmosphere in Berlin is really good, it was so important to win against Oberhausen on first matchday and of course it was fully deserved. Niemeyer played fantastic in my opinion, a strong debut by him. Ramos - of course the best player from the league next to Raffael - was motivated although newspapers wrote that he is uncontent with his current situation. He gave his best and his quality is simply very high. Domovchiyski is a fighter, not as good as Ramos but he scored against Oberhausen and he was the big suprise in Herthas team. Rukavytsya, an Australian international, showed that he has big potential, too.
And at last Rob Friend will be back in the team again. Last week he had misfortune when he was concussed early in the game (and therfore substituted very early).
Moreover Raffael, superstar from Hertha BSC, is back to the substitutes bench after his illness. Coach Babbel said that Raffael will probably play and if I picture to myself that he will play against Dusseldorfs poor defense, I expect goals for Hertha.
Hertha has the biggest quality in the league and the atmosphere in Berlin is really good. Dusseldorf is under pressure, maybe they will be that nervous like Hertha last week, Hertha can be more relaxed than last week. Hertha will get counter opportunities with their fantastic offensive against Dusseldorfs bad attuned defense. So I just can not imagine that Dusseldorf will win tonight.
My heart says Dusseldorf, my mind says Hertha. But if we are looking on facts, Hertha will win tonight. Dusseldorf is in a crisis, Hertha will exploit it. I expect a very difficult season for Dusseldorf and they will lose tonight if Hertha won't play arrogant (but they won't do).
Pick: Hertha Berlin (+0) @1,83 (Pinnacle) , 4/10
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