[DSQUAREDLOL]

Hi, my bet for Friday:

27.08.2010, 18:00h | 2. Bundesliga | Erzgebirge Aue - VfL Bochum

Betting is changeable thing, on Monday I backed Bochum and I kept my fingers crossed for them and this evening I will have a bet against them.

First of all I want to start my preview with writing about Erzgebirge Aue. Aue is a promoted team and last year they were very strong at home. They did some changes in the team, they sold some players and they bought experienced players. First I thought it is the wrong way to substitute some promotion 'heroes' like Eric Ageymang by players who failed with their last teams (Enrico Kern, Oliver Schröder, Kevin Schlitte, all three from relegated team Hansa Rostock). But I am telling the truth if I say that I actually wanted to have a bet on them last Saturday when they beat Paderborn but I was not brave enough because of their injury misery. Let's look on their most probably lineup against Bochum:

Männel - le Beau, Lachheb, Paulus, Klingbeil - Hensel, Schröder - Schlitte, Curri, Hochscheidt - Kern (Glasner)

The important defender Kos is out for weeks, same with their good striker Braham. In addition Aues new players Milchraum and Strauß are injured but it is not so grave because both were not part of the team so far.

I admit that I do not know much about every single player from Aue but I talked with a betting mate some weeks ago and he said to me that Aue is a very strong team. Their goalkeeper Männel is a goalkeeper talent and an important backing. Their defense consists
of the old and experienced Paulus and the 23 years old Adil Lachheb (new from Hallescher FC) who showed two good performances so far. Their left-back and captain is Rene Klingbeil. I still now him very, very well, he played for my favourite club Hamburger SV some years ago. He is a very solid, struggling defender but the offensive is his weakness. But Klingbeil is very powerful and strong, therefore I think that he will do his job well in the defense. Hensel and Schröder are their defensive midfield player. Hensel scored last Saturday in the injury time to the 1:0 win for Aue in Paderborn (I will say sth. about it later), Schröder is new from Rostock and I am sure that he is a very good new signing. Even when Rostock showed poor performances last year, he was one of the best players from them. He is experienced and players like him are important for a promoted team. Curri, a 166cm small player, is already 35 years old but he is technical skilled and I am sure that it will be very difficult for Bochums defense to defend against him. Aue will play with one single striker, probably Enrico Kern. He is a strong player with big potential and he is quite strong in the air. That could be an important point because Bochum showed problems with positional play against 1860.

So I said sth. about Aues team, now some general things about that club. Aue is a traditional strong home side from East Germany with fantastic fans. Their last 3. Liga season was strong and the promotion was the reward.
Two weekends ago they had their competitive debut in the DFB Pokal against 1. Bundesliga club Borussia M'gladbach. Aue impressed me, they were struggling until the end but all in all Gladbach was too strong and Aue lost 1:3. But they played very passional. Last Saturday they won 1:0 away in Paderborn. The win was a bit lucky because Paderborn had better opportunities but all in all the win was not undeserved. Aue was struggling and the late 1:0 in the injury time was the reward for it. The atmosphere in the little town and in the team is great as I heard. The chemistry is right and Aue has a good mix of young and old players.

I expect that Aue will play carefully against Bochum, but nevertheless they will attack. I think that their offensive with strong Enrico Kern and Curri is strong enough to practise on Bochums' weak point: Bochums defense.

So something about Bochum. I have written many things about them in my last preview, but I will do it again. First of all their most probably lineup:

Heerwagen - Kopplin, Maltritz (Yahia), Mavraj, Grote (Pfertzel) - Dabrowski, Maric - Federico, Toski - Saglik, Tese

First of all an interesting thing. Two weeks ago Bochum played away in offenbach, a team from the 3. Liga which is currently very strong. Offenbach is a little bit similar to Aue, a strong and fighting home team. So, Bochum was favourite in an away match but they were not able to make the running. The result was that Offenbach beat poor Bochum with 3:0.

Now some impressions from Bochum's match against 1860 on Monday. The game was how I expected it. Bochums offensive was very strong, their North Korean superstar Chong Tese scored twice and showed a great performance. Mahir Saglik, a fantastic counter striker and a new signing from SC Paderborn, had no connection to the game. I think his game style does not go well with Bochums strategy. Saglik is a counter striker but Bochum is a team which try to dominate. So the chemistry is not right. Apart from that their offensive was really strong, Toski and Federico played good also.

But their defense shocked me. I have written that their defense is their weak point but I did not think that their defense is that poor to be honest. Their first goal against resulted from a catastrophal defense mistake by poor Marcel Maltritz. A harmless cross but Maltritz missed the ball. The second goal against was another example for poor defending. 1860's fast winger Stefan Aigner overrunned Bochums defender Dennis Grote (who is actually not a defender but he has to play because regulars are out). Bochum's defense was a disaster and if they will not solve that problem, I do not see them playing for promotion.

Another mentionable thing: Today I watched the press conference from VfL Bochum and their coach Friedhelm Funkel said that players are tired. For example superstar striker Chong Tese had problems with stamina after ~60-70 minuts in the game against 1860. Personally I doubt that he will be able to repeat his great performance in Aue because only 3 days for regeneration is quite short.

And if a team wants to get 3 points in Aue, they need a good stamina. In addition I read weather forecast and rain is very possible tommorow. Of course that would be an advantage for fighting Aue.

Concluding I do not think that Bochums stamina will be good enough to beat Aue. They are the better team, no doubt, but we saw a similar situation in Offenbach when Bochum lost 0:3. Aue has enough self-confidence from the last minute win in Paderborn and they are a great home side anyway. Furthermore Bochums defense is a ticking bomb. Bochums best defender Yahia is still very doubtful and even if he would play, I do not think that he would be fit enough. (News 27.08.2010 0:00 - Yahia did not travel to Aue)

"Only" 4/10 because Bochum is actually the better team but I do not see them getting 3 points in Aue.

Pick: Erzgebirge Aue (+0.25) @2,01 (Pinnacle) , 4/10