[DSQUAREDLOL]

22.08.2010, 13:30h | Energie Cottbus - Fortuna D'dorf

I do not understand over/under odds in this game, I made bad experiences with over/under betting but I will have a try with small stakes because over 2,5 is more possible than under 2,5 goals in any case.
I will try to explain you why. Cottbus has a very, very strong offensive. Their offensive is their big strength. But they sold a few important key players, among others their great goalkeeper Gerhard Tremmel who plays for RB Salzburg now. Cottbus showed how strong they are when they beat my favourite team Hamburger SV 4:2 (and HSV played with best players). Petersen is their best play, top team Schalke 04 wants to buy him and I understand them. Next to him Sergiu Radu will probably start (Emil Jula is doubtful). Anyhow we can say that Cottbus' strikers are very strong. But the defense could be their big problem this year. Let's have a look into Cottbus back line:

Afriyie, Straith, Brzenska, Soma

Afriyie is a new defender from Denmark, I did not see him so far but I read in a Cottbus fan forum that he made a poor impression so far. But I know Adam Straith, he is a 19 years old defender who did a lot of mistakes in the defense last year. He is technical skilled but his problem is his non-existent experience. Brzenska is solid and experience but too slow against Dusseldorfs fast strikers (Wellington, Gaus, etc.). Soma is Asian and I do not know much about him, but I read that his strength is his offensive play.

Their new goalkeeper is Kirschbaum who was substitute goalkeeper from a 3. Liga team (Sandhausen). I do not know why Cottbus bought him but I am pretty sure that he is not as good as Tremmel was.

How do I expect Cottbus to play? Cottbus will attack. Their coach Wollitz is a coach who wants to see fast and offensive soccer. Cottbus is traditional good at home, their strikers are technical skilled and therefore I expect them to put Dusseldorf under pressure from the first until the last minut from the game.

But I have to mention that Cottbus defensive midfield player Kruska is doubtful, he is the heart of the team. But he will probably play. Striker Jula is doubtful, too, but coach Wollitz will decide a few minuts before the game if he will start or not.

Enough about Cottbus. Dusseldorf was my big disappointment in the test games. Their defense was their big strength last year but they sold their very, very important defense chief Bamba Anderson and his missing is so grave. They bought Lukimya from a 3. Liga team to substitue him but he won't be good enough to replace him. Their defense was their weak point so far. But Dusseldorf bought some good strikers like the technical strong player Wellington from 1899 Hoffenheim or Erfurts great Brasilian playmaker Rockenbach da Silva.

Dusseldorfs fans were not happy about Dusseldorfs poor defeat against average 3. Liga team Koblenz (0:1). But Dusseldorf played without their important midfielder Lambertz (he will return) and the weather was very bad (heavy rain). Anyway they want to make amends for their fans. So I expect them to play brave against Cottbus. It is not Dusseldorfs style to try to keep the 0:0, they are fired up for an away win and they want revenge for their 4:2 defeat away in Cottbus some months ago.

All in all I expect Cottbus to attack and Dusseldorfs defense is simply not good enough to resist the pressure. Dusseldorf has fast good offensive players to counter attack, Cottbus' defense is not operating well together so far. Odds from >2 are too high.


Pick: over 2.5 goals @2,00 (188bet) , 4/10