Thread: Trends
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Old 26-07-2010, 22:05
jtw1 jtw1 jest offline
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Re: Trends

GOODWOOD 3.25 Group 2 LENNOX STAKES
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Run as a Group 2 since 2003 so it's those last 7 years i'll concentrate on.

* 7/7 were rated 110+
* 6/7 were taking a step down from G1 or had ran at G2 LTO
Only 1 Fav has won in those 7 runnings
6/7 had won at Group 2 or 3 grade
* 5/7 were previous 7f winners [last seasons winner had been btn only a sh-hd over 7f]
6/7 were returned at 7/1 or under.

* = Strong trend imo

DUNELIGHT , LOVELACE and RIGGINS are all rated under 110.

Of the 9 left , 8 were 7f winners while CAT JUNIOR has finished under a half length 2nd over the trip so no help there .

RED JAZZ [G3] , AIR CHIEF MARSHALL [G3] , LORD SHANAKIL [list] , FINJAAN [G3] are all taking a step up in grade from thier last run .

FORGOTTEN VOICE has never won above CL2 Handicap grade , he has ran well in G3's but has never bothered the judge when taking on the G1/2 horses.

MAIN AIM was favourite for this last season [6/5] and came last which is a major concern on a track like Goodwood , a specialist track with it's twists , turns and undulations .

BALTHAZAR'S GIFT was only beaten a half length when a 25/1 shot last year.
He has had a couple of runs this season both over a too-short 6f and both were G1's.
The return to G2 and the extra furlong will certainly be in his favour here .
Unfortunately Clive Cox's stable has been in poor form for most of the current flat season , only 5 winners from 123 runners on the turf .

That leaves the French trained DALGHAR and CAT JUNIOR .

DALGHAR may well start FAV and is relatively lightly raced for a 4yo .
6th behind GOLDIKOVA at Royal Ascot [8f] last time was a decent run and he has a 100% record over 7f , but again i would prefer a runner with course experience and CAT JUNIOR fits the bill.

He ran in the Queen Anne [as did DALGHAR ] last time and ran a lone furrow up the center of the track for nearly half the race before the pace took it's toll and Dettori eased him up .
His run before that was better as he was 4l behind PACO BOY in the Bet365 Mile after trying to make all , the 1st , 2nd and 3rd have all franked the form .
His record over 7f is - 2nd [G2] , 3rd [G3] , 2nd [G2] and 4th [G1] .
It was over the course that he finished 3rd in that G3 where he ran into trouble in running .
B MEEHAN has had 6 winners in the past 14 days so the yard is in form
Ladbrokes have him @ 16's while Blue Sq have a generous 22/1 on offer.

5pts EW @ 22/1 - Bl Sq
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