3.35 Leicester - 7f Listed , 4yo+ Leicestershire Stakes
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This used to be a Group 3 race up until 2003 , after that it became a Listed event . But the main stats seem to remain so here goes .
13/13 were in the top 4 in the market
12/13 were Southern trained
12/13 were in the top 2 rated horses.
11/11 were rated 105+
Last time out
8 had ran outside the UK ,
3 ran at Newmarket and
2 ran in a Conditions race at Warwick .
7 of the last
9 winners had won at Group level , all 9 had won at Listed/Group class.
0/13 were Fillies/mares.
BAGUTTA SUN [no OH Rating ] and ISHIADANCER [rated only 82] are 'Northern' so there are removed .
On the subject of Ratings OCEANS' MINSTREL [99] , SPIRIT OF SHARJAH [94] and CARCINETTO [88] are all well below the preferred 105+.
That leaves us with the remaining 2 runners to study and of those 2 LIGHT FROM MARS has only ran once at Listed level and that was when a well beaten 4th in the Doncaster Mile last Saturday.
His best win has been at Cl 2 grade but in the last 14 days the stable has not been at it's best with only two 3rd's from 9 runners .
That leaves what i suspect will quite a short-odds Fav in the shape of
ALYARF who hails from the B
Hills stable , who are getting into gear now.
A win over this distance [7f] at Listed grade followed his 4th behind DELEGATOR in last seasons Craven Stakes -Grp 3.
A negative is that he hasn't been seen on the track since that win back in May 2009 [336 days] , but he is top rated by 9lb's , won on G/F and should have a very real chance of taking this .
SANDOWN 3.45 8f Group 2 4yo+ Bet 365 Mile
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12/14 were returned 1st/2nd or 3rd Fav .
12/14 were aged 4 or 5 yo [6yo+ have accounted for 29 of the 116 runners in those 14 runnings .
12/12 won at least a Listed race
10/10 were rated 109 - 124
9/12 had won at least Group 3 level
8/11 was one of the top 2 rated horses
No mare/Filly has won in the last 12 runnings
R HANNON [4] and
M STOUTE [2] have won the last 6 runnings of this race.
FAREER rated only 100 and the outsider of the field is first to go .
THE CHEKA just a 1lb below the preferred lower level in the ratings but is around 12/1 and has never won above Cl 3 , a decent 2nd in a G3 still not enough for this imo.
PRINCE OF DANCE may well be an improving animal but has never won at Group level and this is a mighty big step up.
PRESSING is now a 7yo and around 14/1.
BEACON LODGE is sitting around 14/1 and 3 of his 4 wins have been on ground with SOFT in the ground description , something that will not happen tomorrow .
Of the remaining 4 , CAT JUNIOR is one i couldn't bet with confidence he generally has always one or several too good for him with only 2 wins from 16 runs in all grades from Cl 3 to G1 .
He did win at Meydan in a G3 but that was the first time he had blinkers on and the race after he ran true to form in 9th place in a G2 .
Not good enough and probably a tad ungenuine imo.
BORDER PATROL could run well if he handles the going in this grade of race , 2 of his 4 wins have been on Soft and last time out his 3rd at St Cloud was on Heavy .
I think he may just lack the pace to win but wouldn't put anyone off a place bet .
As the Trends pointed out we're left with the 1st and 2nd fav who are top and joint 3rd top rated , PACO BOY is from the HANNON yard while CONFRONT represents STOUTE .
PACO BOY proved quite a few , inc myself, when he won over a mile for the first time in this race last year [ he also took the 8f QUEEN ANNE Stakes at Rayal Ascot ]
He is a Group 1 winning horse running in a Group 2 race , a class in which none of his rivals have won.
Cours and ground will suit and the stableis in cracking form .
CONFRONT has had a recent run over in Dubai which should have brought him on , fitness-wise.
A winner at G3 grade he also has a couple of narrow defeats in G2 company.
Distance and going should be no problem and STOUTE also has his stable in great from.
But he still is rated 9lb inferior to PACO BOY and i'm afraid it's another short-odds Fav that gets the selection .
PACO BOY should be hard to beat if fit enough to do justice first-time -out.
SANDOWN 4.15 - Group 3 10f 4yo+ Gordon Richards Stakes
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13/14 were 4 or 5yo, there were very few older horses so possibly not the strongest stat.
12/14 were returned in the top 3 in the betting [clear + jt 1/2/3 favs]
12/13 were previous winners over 10f [ 2008 winner had been btn just under 1l in the only 10f race it had contested.
10/11 were rated 110+
The last
8 winners had won at Group 3 or better.
M STOUTE has won it 4 times in the past 14 runnings.
Keeping it to the top 3 in the betting seems sensible so out goes STEEL TANGO , TRANQUIL TIGER , REDWOOD and SOUL CITY.
CROWDED HOUSE has never won over 10f [ further would appear to suit imo] and had neevr won since taking the Racing Post Trophy back in 2008.
Looking at the type of races he has contested this is a nice drop down in class for him and he must have a decent chance of taking this G3 especially with the stable in such good form.
GLASS HARMONIUM probably still has a decent race in him , whether it's today remains to be seen .
A winner over the distance on G/F at Ascot [Listed] , that is one of his 2 career victories , he has to improve to have a chance of taking this .
Maybe just need to run today ??
LAAHEB like Crowded House , has never won above Listed Grade , but this is his distance and Ground .
Won at Listed grade and sure to improve this season but i'm going to stick with a horse who has won at the top grade.
CROWDED HOUSE has won at G1 and been a close 2nd in G3'S [ albeit in Dubai.
Hopefully the 10f will not pose a problem and fitness should not be a worry after 3 runs at Meydan .