Quote:
Originally Posted by jtw1
SANS FRONTIERE is around the 4/1 mark so  for tomorrow .
SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 2.0 - 12f - Group 3 [formerly the John Porter Stks]
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13/14 had been placed in a Group race , 8 had won at Group level .
13/14 had already won over 12f
12/14 were making their seasonal debuts
12/14 were aged 4-6y old
10/10 with a BHB rating were rated 108 or better .
Taking out those rated UNDER 108 takes out no less than 10 of the 17 entries.
Of those left only CLOWANCE has not won over the 12f but she has ran 3 times in G1 company [12f,14f and 16f ] so i would not dismiss her chance too quickly on that score.
HALICARNASSUS has won 3 Gorup races but the last was over in turkey and the other 2 were back in 2007 .
His did win only a 64k handicap over in Meydan in March but it's my opinion he's not good enough nowadays to take this race , esp giving weight away to every other runner .
Unless they have turned things around 180% , GODOLPHIN's poor record in early season races turns me against CLAREMONT , if they have fair enough but i'll take my chance on droping this one .
That leaves - AKMAL , ALLIED POWERS , PURPLE MOON , TRAFFIC GUARD , HARBINGER and CLOWANCE to consider .
If the last named is declared i'll have a closer look at the Fillies record in this race. |
All 5 have been declared .
With regards to the record of Fillies , it is
2 wins and a 3rd from
11 runners in the past 14 runnings .
One of those 2 winners was a 20/1 shot . Unfortunately the RP does not give ratings past 1999 but up until then all the Fillies that had ran were rated under 108.
The 2 winners had won at Listed level , along with 3 btn Fillies so it looks favourable for CLOWANCE on the sex angle
With the current going described as GOOD and temperatures of 14/15 degrees with no rain forecast the ground could end up G/F .
With that in mind i'm taking out CLOWANCE as she has ran only twice on GOOD ground and 4 times on Soft/Heavy .
She has won on Good but in a time 6.7secs slower than the standard so i'm thinking it might be a bit lively out there for her on Saturday .
The going should suit all remaining 4 .
ALLIED POWERS has won a Listed [Handicap] race and been placed in G2+3 events .
That Listed [handicap] win was at Hamilton over 12f and his Group placings were over 10f. He has won at 12f 3 times but i get a niggly doubt that he could be found wanting at that distance in this class of race .
2 of his 5 wins were on Heavy going and his other 2 wins were in Cl 3/4 grade .
Not good enough for me here , despite the stable having winners this week.
PURPLE MOON has not been seen on the course since 28th march last year and despite his honourable runs abroad in G1's and 2's he has onlt won at Listed grade and that was back in 2007.
Won on his 2yo debut but his 3 seasonal debuts since have all been defeats - 4,5,4.
AKMAL has won 4 of his last 5 outings with the first being a Cl 2 and he finished with victory in a G3
He started off rated 77 last season and ended up on 108 .
4/7 wins were on ground described as G/F or Firm the other 3 were on Good .
That was the good news the bad news is that those 4 wins were over 14f and 16f. In fact the further he went last season the better he was .
DUNLOP'S horses at Newmarket have proved he can still train Group winners [ despite my doubts]
I expect to see him doing his best work at the end of this race as Newbury's long home straight will suit him down to the ground but he must surely need a couple of furlongs more to show his best ??
TRAFFIC GUARD has won over 12f on G/F and has certainly improved since moving from J C-HYAMS stable to the COLE yard but there lies the problem as this stable has had 25 runners on the AW and on the Flat this season and they have only one 3rd place to show for it .
One Trend i left to this point is the fact that 4 of the last 13 last ran in the ST SIMON stakes over C/D the previous season.
HARBINGER was 3rd in that race last October.
He has only ran 5 times , winning a G3 at Goodwood as well as that 3rd on ground that probably had too much give in it.
STOUTE has had 4 winners in the past 14 days and has won this race twice in the past 13 runnings.
I think this horse has the Class and ability to win and the yard has been in good form so he's the selection with AKMAL sure to be running on for a place.