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Re: Trends
8 declared to run amd of those 4 i was going to take at closer look at only RECHARGE has not been declared.
PALAVICINI is trained by J DUNLOP who has only had 1 winner from 33 runners in the past 4 seasons in 4yo+ races while J FORTUNE has had 3/28 wins on Dunlops older horses.
The trainer , whilst once of the top yards in the country has seen their fortunes drop in Group races over the seasons .
The yard has only had 3 runners on the turf so far with a 3rd the best placing
Only 7 Group wins in 4 seasons and NONE in 4yo+ races.
The horse himself has a record at Newmarket of 2,2[listed],1[listed],3 [G3].
He has won at G3 level over 9f at York and 2 of his 3 wins have been on the forecasted going of G/F.
I have doubts about the yard and think the horse may need this run .
SANS FRONTIERE is the mount of Frankie Dettori who has strike-rate of 28% when riding for J NOSEDA [24% on his 4yo+ runners]
They have had a winner from 9 runners in the past 14 days , albeit it was on the AW , but a 2nd and 3rd from 5 on Turf shows that his runners faring not to badly...
It's hard to judge how good the horse is as he has only ran 3 times , winning his Maiden at Lingfield [Turf] , then a very good 2nd in the Craven to DELEGATOR .
That was followed by a 3rd[ btn 1l] in the G2 Dante .
Everything will depend on how fit the horse is as i can only assume he has had his problems in training.
The going should not be a concern imo.
SRI PUTRA has ran at a consistently high grade most of his career from Listed to G1's .
He has won at G2 and G3 grade , at 8f +10f and all 4 wins were on Good ground.
If we take out his G1's [clearly not good enough and runs on Soft going his career record reads 1,1,0,1,1,5.
M JARVIS won a Listed race at Nottingham last week and as well as an AW win he seems to have his yard in good nick but interestingly both those winners were ridden F DETTORI and he was on when the horse won his G2 at Deauville.
Summary - Looking at these 3 , i'm inclined to take out PALAVICINI for the reasons given above about the trainer/ stable form.
He does have a liking for Newmarket which is a strong positive sign but
Group 3 is probably this one's level imo.
The fact that Dettori has a winning record on the horse and the stable but has chosen [ if he had the choice i assume] another to ride looks as though SRI PUTRA may be up against it here .
Certainly capable of a place on his best form though.
SANS FRONTIERE therefore gets the nod here .
Provided he is fit enough , remember this will only be his 4th run despite being a 4yo , and there's no doubting he was highly thought of as a 3yo and showed it on his 2 runs in very good company .
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