[jtw1]

3.10 LONGCHAMP G2 4yo+ 10f
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12/12 returned at odds up to 15/1 , 3 outright Favs .
11/12 had all won at Group level , the other had won a Listed race.
11/12 ran in Group company LTO.
10/12 were 4 yo's despite older horses representing approx 33% of the runners [ 34/93] the other 2 were 5yo's
9/12 had won over 10f , 3 others had won over 9f and 12f.

An interesting stat is that 6 previous winners has last ran in the G3 PRIX EXBURY at St Cloud in March.

Odds wise the only horse to be excluded today is VALIDOR.
LA BOUM is a 7 yo.
THE BOG BERRY is a 5yo and just on the odds limit , just enough to be dropped from here .
There are 2 other 5 yo's but they are the only runners to have competed in the Prix Exbury , STARLISH is one of those but despite that run and the fact he has won at G3 level he does appear to be fully exposed and the 5 runs he has had in G1/2 grade have resulted in only 1 placeing and that was as a 3yo.
The other 5yo is COUNT CANIBAL and he has the same problem for me as STARLISH in the fact that he has won at G3 but generally disappointed at anyhting higher.

3 left -

CUTLASS BAY has only ran 3 times but each was a win over 10f, the last one a G2 .
A FABRE is well on form with 7 winners in the past 14 days .
One worry is the fact he has not see a racecourse since MAY but with a 100% race record i'm sure he'll be as fit as possible for this one.

ON EST BIEN is probably still on the upgrade as made progession from a Maiden win to G3 in 5 runs , the only blot was his 2nd outing on ground which would appear to have been too fast for him over 7f.
The stable has had a couple of winners recently but this one has not ran for a full YEAR but has won on both seasonal debuts .

CELIMENE was 4th in the French Oaks last season after winning her first 3 races , Maiden to G3 .
Something would appear to have went wrong in her next run [German Oaks] where she finished well down the field but she bounced back to take a G2 at St Cloud on her last run of last season.
She has won on her previous 2 seasonal debuts .
2 previous winners were Fillies so not too worried on that score , but her yard is not exactly firing right now , o wins from 6 runners .

Another tricky one today !! , ON EST BIEN has been off the track for a year now and that is enough for me to have doubts .
CELEMINE would have got the vote if her stable had a couple of winners to their name but with A FABRE in such good form i'm going for CUTLASS BAY to make it 4 from 4 .
Obviously doesnt take a lot of racing for whatever reason , hence the fact i'm prepared to let him off with a 334 day break , so i'll trust that the trainer has him fit enough to do justice today .

8pt win - CUTLASS BAY @ 2.42
2pt win - CELEMINE @ 7.2

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