Thread: Trends
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Old 11-04-2010, 12:50
jtw1 jtw1 jest offline
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Re: Trends

TASTAHIL last @ 5/2 , something amiss there imo.

Sunday - THE CURRAGH 3.45 - Grp 3 Gladness Stakes - 7f - 4yo+ .

10/11 were in the top 5 in the betting
9/11 were 7f winners , other 2 had won at 8f .
9/11 had won at Listed/Group level
8/9 with a rating were rated 105+
6/9 with course experience had won at least once at The Curragh.


7 runners today and as with the case of the majority of these Group races it's the outsiders that are 1st to go , so remove CROISULTAN , KARGALI and THE TOOTH FAIRY.

All 4 left have all won at 7f and are Rated over 105 .

Again all 4 have won in Listed company at least , however JUMBAJUKIBA is now a 7yo who may well be on the downturn nowadays .
I'm certain he'll give his usual game front-running race but the other 3 have more scope for improvement and i think he'll find 1 or 2 a bit better .

The remaining 3 have all won on Soft/Heavy ground and the stables have all had winners in the past 14 days .

VOCALISED is from the J BOLGER yard , he won his first 3 runs are a 3yo last season before going astray in the French 2000 and disappointing over what was probably an inadequate 6f in his last 2 runs.
If he still has the abilty he will have a good chance here as he has won over C/D but i've a niggly doubt about the stable form so far despite a couple of recent wins , both of which were on the AW .
One had a previous run and the other held on by a neck .

RAYENI represents the J OXX stable who have been in good form lately with 3 wins and 3 placed from 9 runners in the past fortnight .
He has a G3 win to his name and was 2nd in the Irish 2000.
He never ran again until Sep after which he won a Listed race over 6f here.
In his last outing he was beaten 2l by the remaining runner today , LIBANO.
He was receiving 2ld from that runner and is getting an extra 1lb today , whether that will be enough remains to be seen.

Ex-Italian LIBANO completes the trio who took a couple of runs to find his form after moving from Italy he has won a G3 in his native land as well as that Listed win against RAYENI .
the Heavy going will not be a concern here as he had 3 wins on ground classed as such.
The D WELD yard has had a couple of winners , interestingly they were 3yo's while 14 runners aged 4+ have been beaten [ OXX has ran only 2 older horses this season ]
Still weighted to beat RAYENI he appeals at better odds than the Fav.

A tricky race with any of the 3 mentioned in with a shout , however until VOCALISED has shown he's retained his previous abilty i'm going for the WELD runner to confirm form over the distance and ground over RAYENI.

10pt win LIBANO @ 9/4
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