NOTT- 3.50 - 1m6f LISTED STAKES - 4yo+ .
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This has been run 7 times previously so just enough runnings to catch the eye .
The 2007 renewal was won by a 20/1 shot but was times at
9.35 secs above the ave on GOOD/FIRM going so that result has to be taken with a pinch of salt .
6/7 were in the top 4 in the betting
6/7 were Southern trained
6/7 were rated 92+
6/7 had won at least twice [the '07 winner only had won win to it's name]
6/7 won over 12f+ , the other was btn a half length in a 12f race .
3 had won at Grp 3 /Listed level and the other
4 had finished under 6l behind the winner in Grp3/Listed company.
Removing those 20/1 or over takes out HALLA SAN , SHIPMASTER , RAINCOAT , CARNAC and DEPORTMENT.
When it comes to the Northern Trainers i always give M JOHNSTON's runners a bit of leeway as , imo , they are generally a better class of horse compared to his neighbours.
MONTAFF has only won once and that was in a CL4 event over 8f.
All those left are rated over 92 , have won at least twice and have won over 12f+.
Which leaves the Class angle to work on -
SWINGKEEL has neevr won above CL 3 and 2 of his 3 wins were on G/F ground , which he certainly is not going to get tomorrow .
The other win was on the AW.
He did finish 2nd [sh-hd] on Soft ground on his reappearance last season but that was in a CL 4 Handicap and he has went up 18lb since.
OPINION POLL has never won [or ran] above CL2 grade and is 15lb higher in the weights than for his seasonal debut last year .
Only a 4y-old so there could still be improvement to come and has won on Heavy + G/S.
The Jarvis stable has only had 2 runners on the Turf so far but both were fairly well beaten [ 7/2 and 12's in the betting ]
That leaves 2 and DRILL SERGEANT ,although never winning above Cl2 grade , has ran close in G2 and Listed company.
He has won over 12f but his other 2 wins were over 10f and being by Rock Of Gibraltar i feel the shorter distance is more up his street .
A winner on Soft and G/S [Both 10f ] he ran predominently on much better going last season.
With so many niggly doubts about DRILL SERGEANT i'm nominating
TASTAHIL to win this .
He has won a Listed event over 13f on Soft , as well as a 2nd and 3rd on Soft in a couple of G3's last season.
He finished over 8l in front of DRILL SERGEANT in one of those races and beat the same horse over 12f giving 2lb to the 2nd and was noted as staying on while DRILL SERGEANT had 'No Extra'.
One negative is the yards poor start to the Flat , by their usual standards , but i'm hoping that will change tomorrow .
10pts @ 3.8 will do me fine
