The LINCOLN
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14/14 had won over 8f+
13/14 were aged 4-6yo[only one winner aged over 6 in the past 22 runnings ]
13/14 were Southern trained
12/14 were returned at 22/1 or UNDER
12/14 carried 9:00 MAX
10/14 had won at least at Cl 2 grade
and as Billy The Punter has pointed out
10/13 were rated higher here than their last Handicap win.
The biggest priced winner has been 33/1 [5 times] since '80 so it seems pointless to look at any over those odds .
Also the 5 favs to have won since '80 have done so in the last
11 runnings of the race .
Runners drawn 13 or under have won the last
7 of the previous
8 runnings at Doncaster.
1st - take out the 'no-hopers @ 40/1 +
2nd - take out the older generation , 7yo+
3rd - take out those who have failed to win over at least 8f
4th - the weight carried by the winner has been rising over prev seasons so i'll remove only the top weight as only one winner in the past 24 has carried over 9:05
5th - take out the Northerner's
6th - take out the over 13's [ stalls wise ]
7th - take out the non-improvers [ those with a lower OR than their last H'cap win ] :doesn't affect the remaining 4:
8th - take out those who have not won below Cl 2 [ thats PENITENT out]
That leaves just 2 , VIVA VETTORI who i don't think will handle the going [ 3 wins , all on the AW ] so i'll pin my hopes on
LANG SHINING as it's about time for another 33/1 shot
A winner of a Cl2 on Soft going at Newbury [ straight course i assume ?] and has won 1st time out twice in his career .
Although without a win last season i beleive there were valid excuses -
1st run - 9th in a Listed Handicap @ York where 7 of the 8 who finished in front of him were drawn lower.
2nd - Unp in the Eclipse , need i say more.
3rd - A decent 4th of 17 in a Cl 2 @ York carrying 4lb more than here .
4th + 5th races were over 10f [ never won beyond 8f]
6th and last outing - btn just over 5l in the AYR Gold Cup , rated 2lb higher than today.
He is carrying 6lb more than his last H'cap win.
At those odds an EW bet is advisable
