Thread: Trends
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Old 20-03-2010, 00:59
jtw1 jtw1 jest offline
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Re: Trends

No luck on the final at the Festival

The Flat starts next week and to get us in the mood here's the Trends for the 7f Listed event at Lingfield tomorrow -


3.00 7f Listed 3 y-olds
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7/7 were in the top 4 in the betting
7/7 had won at least once in their career , 5 won Last time out .
7/7 were rated 93+

There are 7 left after taking into account the market .
All 7 have won at least once .
KONA COAST was only rated 93 when well beaten in a Listed race at Meydan and HADEETH is only rated 90 so both are out .

All the remaining 6 should or have find the 7f to their liking .

CLASSIC COLORI has ran only twice and was beaten last time in a G3 on Soft ground at Newbury .
Was possibly badly drawn in the conditions that day.
His yard have had 5 winners from 24 runners in 2010.

DUPLICITY ran his first 2 races over 7f but only won when dropped back to 6f.
His 5th in a G3 over in France LTO was also over 6f.
R HANNON has had 7 wins from 34 runners on the AW in 2010 .
He has ran once on the AW at Kempton .


GREYFRIARSCHORISTA is on a 4-timer but his best win was in a Class 3 Handicap.
No doubt he has been running in a grade or 3 lower than his best as his odds and winning distances will tell you but this is still a big jump up in class .
There have been 22 runners from those who have finished behind GREYFRIARS in his 3 wins but only 1 horse has managed to win [ he was making his career debut when 2nd behind GREYFRIARS ].

HANSON'D won his 2nd race when odds-on in a Cl 4 at AYR .
That followed his promising debut in a Cl 2 at York , he was well beaten in the Racing Post Trophy @ 50/1.
The stable has been putting the winners by steadily this year on the AW.

JIRA has been highly tried after winning a Listed race at Newmarket in June.
4th in a G3 at Ascot [btn under 3l] , 8th[btn 8l] in the Sweet Solera and a 4th [btn just over 2l ] in a Listed race when slow out of the stalls was then followed by a close 3rd in a Cl2 at NMKT and finally came a 6l beating behind the odds-on LILLIE LANGTRY in a 433k Cl 2 Stakes event at NMKT.
Bred to stay every inch of the 7f .
Seb Saunders has a 24% strike-rate for C BRITTAIN on his 3y-olds and the trainer himself has had a 33% stike-rate in the month of March for the past 2 seasons.

Summary - CLASSIC COLORI may just need the race and i doubt he is up to this class
DUPLICITY won when dropped in distance and on Soft going last season .
GREYFRIARSCHORISTA has ran well this season but takes a big jump in class here , i doubt he is up to it.
HANSON'D has a dcent EW chance afetr his 2nd at York and easy win at AYR .
JIRA has been tried at a level just above todays and has ran well enough to suggest that , providing she can handle the surface , she has the class to win this .
Bred for 7f , a trainer in form [won this last season] and a jockey who has ridden well for the yard leads me to believe that the 10/ 1 on offer is well worth an interest .
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