Cheers guys , lets hope for a sucessful last day
At last a well fancied odds-on Fav comes in , pity about TIDAL BAY though
To GOLD CUP DAY
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TRIUMPH HURDLE
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13/15 won last time out
14/16 had won at least twice over the sticks
11/12 had race up to 12f on the flat with only one being rated above 80 on the level.
17/19 were returned at 20/1 or UNDER.
Apply the odds / Won LTO + won 2 times over hurdles stats leaves us with
- ADVISOR , ALAIVAN , CARLITO BRIGANTE , OLOFI , SECANT STAR and SOLDATINO .
From those who have ran on the Flat ALAIVAN [110] is over the ratings Trend.
While OLOFI , SECANT STAR and SOLDATINO have never raced on the Flat.
From the 2 left , ADVISOR has only won at Cl 3 grade and may need even more rain that is forecast .
CARLITO BRIGANTE was only rated 74 on the level , has won a G2 and the G/S ground will suit him well .
Stake 10pts -
CARLTIO BRIGANTE @ 9/2
Stake 5pts - ADVISOR @ 6/1
GOLD CUP
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55/57 that ran in a previous GC have not won
17/19 that completed the course LTO were placed 1st , 2nd or 3rd.
16/19 were returned at 20/1 or UNDER
15/16 were aged 7-9y old
10/12 were placed at a previous Festival
Well the stats say KAUTO STAR is up against it , but i do believe that once in a while a special horse comes along who defies the norm , and this is one of those horses.
So i'm basically looking for the 2nd and in
COOLDINE i think i could have found it .
With the majority of the field ruled out by the odds , age , placed LTO and previous run in the GC Stats i'm left with the nap and TRICKY TRICKSTER .
Rated 6lb's higher than the Nichols runner COOLDINE to place is a decent bet . but i can't see anything [ barring the obstacles or injury beating the Fav ]
FOXHUNTERS
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Only
2 of the past
18 were aged 10+ , despite the majority of runners being from that group.
16/21 won last time out.
7/11 were Irish bred , the last UK bred winner was back in 2002.
Only 2 of the past 21 were ex-Handicappers [ with the exception of those trained by P NICHOLS ]
Ignoring those over 9 yo , didn't win LTO and the ex-Hnadicappers in the race leaves us with GENTLE GEORGE , CHESTNUT ANNIE and SERICINA
SERICINA - 10pt win @ 11/1
GENTLE GEORGE - 5pt ew @ 20/1
CHESTNUT ANNIE - 5pt ew @ 28/1