[Napoleon Solo]

Columbus v Toluca

Columbus have a few things going against them coming into this match. This will be the first game of the season, their last competitive game being played in November. None of their players have played the full 90 minutes in any of their warm-up games and the club were still using trialists to fill out the roster up until last week. Star forward Guillermo Barros Schelotto and captain Frankie Hejduk will not play because of suspensions, while defenders Chad Marshall and Jed Zayner will not play due to injury.

Toluca are already nine games into their season so match fitness shouldn't be a problem. Toluca's only missing players will be defender Édgar Dueñas and forward Néstor Calderón so the team will be almost at full strength. They started the season poorly, without a win in their first five games, but are now unbeaten in their last four, winning twice.

The weather has conspired against Columbus. Up until a few days ago, there was plenty of snow about and the weather was freezing, which would have suited the US team. However, the snow has melted and the temperature is much milder.

US teams also have a terrible record against Mexican teams, even in games played in the US. The current record is 25 wins, 17 draws and 38 losses. That's an awful statistic for a country which is arguably the regions strongest football nation.

The Columbus players may also have their minds on another issue at the moment, an ongoing dispute between the MLS and the players union, which could see the start of the MLS season disrupted.

All things considered, I'm going to take a chance on the Mexican team coming away from the Crew stadium with a win.

Toluca at 2.40 (PaddyPower) - 3 points

Toluca could make this tie quite comfortable for the second leg, especially with the missing players in defence for Columbus.

Toluca -1 @ 4.50 (Bet365) - 1 point