Could tell FANTASIA's fate a few strides out of the stalls
Here's some stats for the Arc .....
1 - The last
15 runnings have been won by
3 y-olds no fewer than
12 times.
2 -
11 of the last
13 winners had
WON last time out .
3 - Since 1987
11 winners had ran in the Prix Neil LTO.
4 - A FABRE has won the race
7 times since '87
5 -
12 of the last 13 winners were returned in single figures in the betting.
6 -
12 of the past 13 had all won at least once in Group 1 company .
7 -
13 /
13 had ran no later than 6 weeks previously .
8 -
64/87 runnings have been won by a
FRENCH TRAINED HORSE .
Going by the starting price of the past winners it would be wise to concentrate on the top 7 in the market , who are -
SEA THE STARS , FAME AND GLORY , CONDUIT , CAVALRYMAN and VISION D'ETAT , YOUMZAIN and STACELITA.
Looking closely i see that CONDUIT has not run for 10 weeks , is a 4 yold and if you take out GODOLPHINS 3 wins , it's been 21 years since a British trainer won the race so , all in all, thats enough for me to overlook this one.
VISION D'ETAT is another 4 y-old who i'm bypassing .
If the 6y-old YOUMZAIN wins then i will give the game up [again
]
FAME AND GLORY is the right age , has won Group 1's but probably needs a bit more give in the ground than he will get tomorrow , another for the bin , i feel the same could be said about STACELITA .
SEA THE STARS , one of the best we've seen for a long time but odds-on here ?? Not for me .
That leave's the A FABRE trained , 3 y-old winner of this season's Prix Neil
- CAVALRYMAN .
Frankie Dettori knows what it takes to win this race and if i remember the high drawn horse's tend to have an advantage .
At 12/1 i suggest an Each-Way bet as SEA THE STARS should win but racing can be a funny old game .