Will do most of my punting between rounds, but a few quick thoughts on what should be a great week.
Firstly - its been written a million and one times but worth stating again - the rough is very very penal at Turnberry, and the greens are flat, which means if you keep it in the fairway then there's a birdie there for the bagging. Miss the fairway, and you can sub that birdie for a bogey. The scoring should still be good - but there are doubles and trebles out there and its the player that keeps them off the card that will probably take the jug.
Also, the weather looks slightly more in favour of the early Thursday starters, as the wind picks up throughout the day, while Friday is a little more even so they wont be penalised as much in the afternoon as those the day before.
I'm generally looking at those that get started before 10:30:
My main man is
Henrik Stenson - if you want the low down just read Dave Tindall's analysis on Bettingzone.com - but the gist is that Stenson loves being able to use his 3 wood rather than driver which this course lends itself to. If ever protecting a lead he goes to the 3 wood time and time again because he hits fairways for fun with it, and its likely he'll do that from day 1 at the open. Winner of the Masters this year, and always brings his best game to the big tournaments.
Top 10 looks a more than generous price this week...
5pts
Stenson Top 10 @ 5.1 with
Betfair
Aside from that no major would be complete without a few sneaky quid on the big prices:
Senden @ 500 - the greens in regulation king
Schwartzel @ 430- very streaky player - absolute nutter with the putter and routinely misses 3 and 4 footers - Im hoping the flatter greens forgive him those moments this week.
Oosthuizen @ 680- cooled off a little after an electric start to the season, but he's at home on the Euro Tour and ill take him on price alone
A Hansen @ 340- another at home on the Euro Tour that when at his best is outstanding. Clever golfer who should enjoy this course(i hope!)
Oh and a free bet on
Garcia @ 28/1 - he's been practising for this all year and his game suits perfectly. The flat greens will forgive his putting shortcomings and his driving is as straight as they come.