Thread: Trends
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Old 13-07-2009, 20:44
jtw1 jtw1 jest offline
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Re: Trends

Longchamp -Tuesday - 6.45 - Grp2 - 14f - 4yo+
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After sundays 2nd @ 14/1 i'm willing to try and get a winner across the channel.

8/8 have been Colts
8/8 were placed LTO [ 7 were either 1st or 2nd ]
8/8 had won at Listed /Group grade.
7/8 were in the top 3 in the betting
6 were aged 4 while the other 2 were 6 y-olds.
E LELLOUCHE has won this twice in the past 8 runnings.

It may pay just to concentrate on the 3 colts that are entered in this -

VOILA ICI is an Italian trained horse who has won at Grp 3 grade in his native land and been placed at Grp 1 grade over there .
However he has never ran over 12f before and i favour the French horses at home [ all previous 8 runnings over the distance have been won by French trained animals ]

BANNABY won the Grp 1 Prix Du Cadran 20f] over the course and then ran 2nd in the Prix Royal Oak [16f] only 2l behnd YEATS.
Distance doesn't seem to be a problem as he has won at 10 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 and 20f and 5 of his career wins have been on the forecasted GOOD going.
He ran 3rd LTO in a Grp 2 , noted as 'running on' in Soft going over the course btn just over 1l.


POINTILLISTE who comes from the LELLOUCHE yard and has won twice over C/D , one of which was a Grp 3 event.
Ground conditions and distance would appear to be in his favour .
He has only been out of the frame once in 13 outings so is nothing but consistant but whether he can do it at this grade is a doubt with BANNABY in the field.

BANNABY is the class horse in the race , with POINTILLISTE lacking a race at this level and VOILA ICI trying foreign fields for the 1st time , no doubt he's good enough to maybe take a Grp 3 but Grp 2 ??

Now here's the very interesting part , BETFAIR have odds up for this and they have BANNABY Fav at around 2.0 with POINTILLISTE @ 2.4 , early days i know and theres probably not too much in the pot just now but take a look at what CORALS are offering BANNABY 6.0 !!! while the other horse is 5/2 Fav .

Now is it me or is 5/1!! about the only runner to have won a Group 1 over the course , has won over the distance and is fit after 2 outings this season , the last a decent 3rd beaten just over 1 length in a Group 2 race on ground possibly a bit too soft , a bit of over-pricing ????

I'm on
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