Thread: Trends
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Old 08-07-2009, 20:51
jtw1 jtw1 jest offline
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Re: Trends

GOLDIKOVA certainly was a different class - 1st

RAINBOW VIEW - 4th

So the 'insurance bet ' gets most of our stake back , let's hope for a better return on Thursday .

Newmarket 3.10 Group 2 3yo+ 12f Soft
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12/13 were returned at 12/1 or under , only 1 Fav.
12/13 had won at Listed/Group level , only 2 had won at Grp 1 and carried the penalty for that win.
11/13 were 12f winners
11/13 had ran that season .
11/13 had ran at Group level LTO.
9/10 with a BHA rating were rated 111+
5 of the last 7 had ran at Royal Ascot.
0/13 were mares
Interestingly of the past 13 winners no fewer than 8 had won at Newmarket [ both courses and different distances ] and the other 2 who had a course run were placed 2nd [ btn a half length ] and 3rd .
2 had never ran at the Course.

Odds - Take out DRUMFIRE [ 20/1] and INDIAN DAYS [50/1]

Rating - ALWAARY only rated 107 .

Group wins - All the remaining 6 had won at Listed/Group class and are Distance winners.

Group grade LTO - ALL THE ACES only ran in a Listed race LTO and has been beaten by both CAMPANOLOGIST and DOCTOR FREEMANTLE in Grp 2 events and ENROLLER as a 3yo.

Recent run - SCHIAPARELLI hasn't ran in 227 days and would ' appear' to be Godolphin's 2nd string [ been burnt by that one before !!! ]

The remaining 4 have either won or been 2nd at Newmarket .

With dry weather forecast i'm happy to discount ENROLLER as his 3 wins have been on SOFT [2] and G/S [1] while the ground is officially GOOD .

Although DUNCAN ran a great race when 4th LTO in the Grp 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom LTO , he has only won at Listed grade but still has the scope to win a race like this .

Sir M Stoute has a decent record in this with 3 winners from the past 9 runnings but DOCTOR FREEMANTLE's last run was pretty abysmal by any standards .
As i pointed out in that last race his 2 Group 3 wins were at Chester which as we know is achalk to Newmarket's cheese .

CAMPANOLOGIST done everything right bar win at Royal Ascot in the Hardwicke last time [ a race which 3 of the past 13 winners has emerged]
A Group 2 winner he has ran in Group 1-3 company in his last 6 outings and has never been beaten more than 2l in any of those , apart from his seasonal debut in the 10f Brig Gerard Stakes .
The good ground should suit and the distance is not a problem imo.

Stake 7.5pts on CAMPANOLOGIST @ 5/1 - Ladbrokes

Stake 2.5pts on DUNCAN @ 5/2 - Generally available.
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