[jtw1]

TRANQUIL TIGER 3rd


SANDOWN 3.15 ECLIPSE STAKES 10f Grp 1 G/F
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12/13 were returned at 12/1 or under , basically the top 5 in the betting but only 2 Favs have won in 13 runnings .
12/13 had won a Grp 1 race
8/9 with a rating were rated 115+
10/13 had won that season , with the other 3 being placed 2nd in at least 1 run.
10/13 ran at Royal Ascot LTO , 3 from the QUEEN ANNE , 4 from the PRINCE of WALES , 2 from St JAMES'S PALACE and 1 from the HARDWICKE.
2 came from the Derby and 1 ran in France .
The past 4 Three y-old winners all had ran in the 2000 gns.

A OBRIEN - 4
STOUTE - 3
GODOLPHIN - 3

Basically with the market so strong in past years we can jump straight to the top 4 in the betting as any other winner will be a MAJOR upset .

All 4 , CIMA DE TRIOMPHE , CONDUIT , RIP VAN WINKLE and SEA THE STARS have all won in Group 1 company and all are rated 115+.

CIMA DE TRIOMPHE won the Italian Derby [ G1] but has been beaten in 3 subsequent outings in the top grade .

CONDUIT would have a much better chance over a couple of furlongs further imo .
He has won over 10f but that was a Cl 2 Handicap at Epsom and having won the St Leger and wins over 12f on either side of that i think that the true run 10f that this promises to be may tap him for toe.

Although RIP VAN WINKLE has not won or been placed 2nd this season his 2 fourth spots have been in the 2000 gns and the Derby , only btn a couple of lengths in each race O'Brien runs a couple of apparent pacemakers here and the plan could pay off .

SEA THE STARS needs no comment but history is against him as NASHWAN was the last horse to take the Guineas , Derby and Eclipse treble .
Everything went right for him in the Derby , esp the pace set before Tattenham Corner it may be a different story here .

STAKE 10pts - RIP VAN WINKLE .


SANDOWN 2.05 5f Grp 3 G/F
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13/13 ran within 3 weeks of their last outing.
11/11 with a ratingwere rated 102+
12/13 had ran a minimum of 3 races that season
12/13 were returned at 8/1 or under
11/13 ran at LISTED/GROUP class LTO
7/7 where there were double figure runners , that race was won by a horse drawn 8+
4 x 3yo
9 x 4 - 6y olds

From 14 3yo runners that started 8/1 or under there have been 4 winners and 3 x 2nd places .

The draw would appear to have some signifigance here when there are 10+ runners
The 3y-old bias could be a strong feature.

Taking out those drawn 1 - 6 and the couple left which are over the preferred odds leaves us with IALYSOS , TRIPLE ASPECT and ANGLEZARKE.

TRIPLE ASPECT will probably start FAV and his C/D win last time in Listed company was impressive as the stiff finish suited him [ 3 times a winner at 6f ] and Wm Haggas stated after the race he would be coming back for this .
Has won a Group 3 and a couple of Listed events .

ANGLEZARKE is a true 5f horse who was only just over 3l behind Scenic Blast at Royal Ascot LTO , where she was reportedly coming into season.
She should be making her move 2 out and could well be good enough here, but Easterby's yard is still finding winners hard to come by and i think the other 2 have better chances .

IALYSOS was bumped and barged in the Golden Jubilee and that appeared to unsettle him , he trailed in well beaten .
He had to leave Greece as no horse across there could give him any competition and he won first time over here beating ANGLZARKE , who now gets 5lb less for a nk beating.
He has won at 5/6 and 7f and has been clocked at 54 secs over the 5f there .


If IALYSOS has not been affected by his experience at Royal Ascot , and can reproduce some of his Greek form he must go close here .
TRIPLE ASPECT won well here over C/D last time and will take all the beating again .

Stake 5PTS EACH .