Thread: Trends
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Old 02-07-2009, 21:48
jtw1 jtw1 jest offline
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Re: Trends

Fri - 4.00 Sandown - 10f - Listed 3yo+
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7/7
were returned at 9/1 or Under
7/7 had ran at least twice that seaso
7/7 ran in at least Listed company LTO
6/7 rated 105+
5/7 had won over 10f [ one other was placed 2nd+3rd at 10f ]
5/7 ran at Royal Ascot LTO
5/7 were placed 1st or 2nd LTO , the other 2 were unp in Grp 1 + events at the Royal meeting.
3y olds have won 5/7 but as there are none of that vintage running tomorrow , it could be that 4y-olds have an advantage as 2 have won and of the remaning 5 runnings , 4 of the runners-up in those were 4 y-olds.

DEMOCRATE and GUARINO have not ran this season , while the probable Fav KIRKLEES hasn't technically ran on the Turf this season as his last outing was in Dubai in late March.

This will the 5y-old HALICARNASSUS 8th outing of the season [much more than any other prev winner ]

COVERT AMBITION is doubtful due to the ground being G/F and altought here is rain forecast overnight , the rest of the day would appear to be warm and dry .

This should fall to either of Khaled Abadullah's pair of TRANQUIL TIGER and CONFRONT .

The TIGER has won 5 Listed events , of which 2 were over 10f and all were either on Good or G/F going .
Is around the 6/1 mark

CONFRONT may start Fav here and represents the 'value' bet .
This will be only his 7th career outing so improvement could still be on the cards .
He has won a Class 2 and LTO was 3rd in a Group 3 at the Derby meeting.
This will be his first outing over 10f but his pedigree and previous races suggest the distance should not be an issue .

Stake 5pts TRANQUIL TIGER and CONFRONT .
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