Thread: Trends
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Old 30-06-2009, 20:46
jtw1 jtw1 jest offline
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Re: Trends

Another respectable run from JUMBAJUKIBA gets him into 2nd place , but the Fav was a class or 2 above the rest


7.30 Fairyhouse - Grp 3 - 7f - 3yo+ Fillies and Mares
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This has been run as a Grp event over 7f at Leopardstown for the past 6 seasons , hopefully being run at Fairyhouse will not affect the trands too much .

6/6 returned at 8/1 or UNDER
6/6 rated 92+
6/6 won or were placed last time out [ 4 won]
5/5 that had ran over 7f had won at the distance
5/5 that ran in Ireland last time did so at the Curragh , 4 of those were in Handicap company .
There have been two winners each from the 3yo, 4yo and 5yo age group.


Using the RP Betting forecast , we'll take out those over 10/1 which leaves us with half the field .

Ratings wise they all pass , but looking at the placings acheived last time and we'll remove KALIDAHA as he finished 5th in a Group 3 .
2 runners did finish in the first 3 LTO but the other 3 were unp but in Group 1 + 2 events .

There are two who have not won the 7f [ always a specialidt distance imo ] so off go FESTOSO + HEART SHAPED .

That leaves CHANTILLY TIFFANY , MAOINEACH and LUMINOUS EYES .

CHANTILLY TIFFANY has won at Grp 3 and Listed grade .
Twice a winner over 7f sha ran respectably last time at Royal Ascot when 4th in the Grp 2 Windsor Forest Stakes .
Although Ed Dunlop hasn't had a winner in Ireland in the past 5 season's , 4 of his 6 runners were placed 2nd or 3rd .
One worry is that it's Group 3 win was over in Baden-Baden so it might be outclassed by these other 2 .

MAOINEACH has won twice and both of those were Group 3's , one was also over the 7f .
She won first time out this season when taking the Grp 3 1000 Gns Trial Stakes on G-F .
After a couple of poor outings on Soft/Heavy [not her preferred ground] she ran 3rd [ btn one and a half lengths] over 6f last time on G/F in a Grp 3 at Leopardstown.

LUMINOUS EYES has won twice , both over 7f , and one of those was in Grp 3 grade.
She was well beaten 9th in the Irish Guineas on her debut , which is forgivable , but she seems to have a preference for give in the ground and if the forecast going of Good/Firm stays then she could be outpaced here .


Summary - A lot depends on the ground and in that respect it's between MAOINEACH and LUMINOUS EYES.
So with one eye on the weather i'll leave making a decision until i can see on ATR what the going is like .
If theres been rain then i'll probably go for both but if it's G/F then i may go for MAOINEACH itself .
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