NEWMARKET - 4.10 - Earl of Sefton Stakes - 9f - 4yo+
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11/12 finished in the first 4 last time out.
8/8 with a rating were rated 100+ [ 6 were 110+ ]
10/10 gad won at either 8f , 9f or both
9/10 were in the top 4 in the betting
8/10 were aged 4 or 5 yo
7/10 ran in at least Listed company LTO
6/10 had won at Listed/Group level
Taking the top 5 in the
betfair market gives us -
TWICE OVER
VIRTUAL
TAZEEZ
BARSHIBA
BUSHMAN .
BUSHMAN is rated 104 [ lowest of the 5] abd ran in Listed company LTO .
However in finished only 7th in that ran and has only won at Cl 3 grade ; finished 2nd btn 3l in a Listed race.
Also it's usually one of the top yards that take this prize and D SIMCOCK [ with respect] doesn't come into that frame.
VIRTUAL is a virtual non-runner as the trainer states it will not run if the ground is unsuitable [ 4 wins - Soft x 2 , G/S and Good ] and with it currently G/F and no great rainfall on the horizon i doubt it will run.
TAZEEZ has had no experience of a Listed race never mind a Group event .
Surely it's a tall ask for a 5yo with only a couple of Cl 2 Handicaps to it's name to win this .
TWICE OVER will have to have a severe off-day NOT to win this .
Consistent at Grp 1 , 2 and 3 all last season it is without doubt the class act of the race .
H CEIL'S yard is firing and has taken this 3 times in the past 12 seasons.
A very worthy FAV .
BARSHIBA is the only female in the race [ 5 have ran at odds of 12/1 or under and they have produced 1 win @ 7/1and two 2nd's @ 12/1 ]
She has won at Listed grade and been btn only just under 4l in a Grp 1 and a 1l in a Grp 2 .
DRC ELSWORTH has won this twice in the past 7 seasons
She won a Listed race LTO and is rated 108.
TWICE OVER should win this but with a couple of NR's on the cards it could pay to go Each-Way on
BARSHIBA .