Saturday
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And yet again the only racing at Listed or better level is on the AW
However theres no point in moaning again so here's a tentative selection for tomorrow .
I say tentative as the race has only been run 5 times , the last 3 of which were run on the AW but the trends seem to be holding up .
KEMPTON -2.40 - Listed Fillies Stakes - 8f
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5/5 were from the top 3 in the betting
5/5 had won at least once
5/5 ran in Listed/Group company LTO
4/5 were 4y-olds , other was 5y-old.
Whilst only
1 previous winner had won at Listed level the other
4 had finished within 4l of the winner when running in Listed or Group company.
I have taken the first 5 in the market from Bet
365's list .
BORN TOBOUGGIE
PERFECT STAR
FESTOSO
SCUFFLE
DIXEY
First to be discounted is DIXEY who has NEVER ran in Listed/Group company in it's career never mind last time out .
Coupled with the fact that it rated at least 6lb's below the rest and her 2 wins were over 7f , well btn last of 13 in it's reappearance last season in a 8f Newmarket Handicap.
BORN TOBOUGGIE ran in a Listed race on it's final appearance last season and finished 5th , btn under 4l .
However it's only other run in this grade ended with a 25l beating at Yarmouth.
2 of her career wins came on G/S and Soft going whilst the other was on Good going but according to the RP review it was run 'at a muddling pace ' so i'm doubtful it has the class on this surface to win .
PERFECT STAR is the only 5 y-old in the race and while 4/5 runnings ahve been won by a 4y-o the bigger picture shows that only 11 horses aged 5+ have ran and in each running at least one was placed and a 5yo won it last season.
She has won at Listed grade but that was in HANDICAP company and LTO was a well btn 3rd [ 7l ] at Bath in a Listed race.
First run on an AW surface.
Again , i have a doubt that she has the class to beat the selection.
SCUFFLE won a Cl 5 Maiden and two Cl3 Handicaps in the space of 3 months before finishing an 8l 10th of 16 in a Listed race at Redcar on her final appearance , but that was over 7f while her wins were all over the 8f.
With only 5 career rauns under her belt there could still be a fair bit of improvement to come .
The stable has had three 2nd's and two 3rd's all beaten under 2l so they are knocking hard at the door .
FESTOSO carries the Nap tomorrow .
Her one and only win so far was her debut in a Newmarket Maiden over 6f but her subsequent 6 outings after that were all between Listed and Group 1 grade .
The best of these were a 2nd in the Cherry Hinton [grp 2] , 4th in the Lowther [grp 2] and 3rd in the Cheveley Park [grp 1] as a 2yold.
She then wasn't seen for nearly 11 months when re-appearing in a Listed race at Doncaster where she finished 3rd btn 1l .
Her final race of last season was in the Grp 1 Sun Chariot at Newmarket where she finished 9th , 20l behind the winner .
Harry Dunlop has had 2 wins from 7 runners in the past 14 days so the stable sems in good order and i think he's found the perfect opportunity for his charge to start a new season at a grade where she must have a winning chance , imo of course .
One niggly worry is the fact that she has done most of her running over 6/7f but her breeding suggests the mile should suit .
First time on the AW but
