[jbgb007uk]

Hello all, firstly today was the worst day in the blogs short history with the selection getting beaten at ridiculously short odds. Withdrawals played there part as did the weather but full marks to those who got the winner.

Now, Tuesdays racing is absolutely dire and the only horse I really like is Kheleyfs Silver (3.30) but that race is not really going to take much reading. Instead I am going to look at the seller at Leicester. Now we all know in stakes races that the highest rated horse in handicaps should win the race, if all things are equal. Well in sellers I think this is where the value often can be found. The markets seem to be priced up around the handicap marks yet if the horses were able to win from there marks they would be contesting handicaps. Those connections with lowly rated horses have very few options but to put there horses in sellers, and they can often spring a surprise.

The weather tomorrow is due to be raining, very heavily at times and the ground will be very soft across at Leicester. We need to look for horses with soft ground wins or good efforts. So in the 3.40 -

Winners on soft ground - NONE
Places on soft ground -
Near The Front - 1 2nd from 1 run
Just Sam - 1 3rd from 1 run (heavy) with more placings on good-soft
Oronsay - 1 2nd from 2 runs


Now lets narrow it down to those three - they are 4/1, 9/1 and 10/1 in the RP forecast.

Obvious place to start is Near The Front - This is the horse who ran a cracker last time out in an apprentice classified race. Now that race was nearly as weak as this one but the run gives much optimism. The RP race review states "Near The Front, disappointing in a couple of claimers since joining his current yard, had the visor on for the first time and he improved on recent efforts, but the way he plugged on up the hill suggests that he may appreciate an even stiffer test." He gets another furlong today on soft ground, but he was beaten by a horse who had lost its last 15 attempts. Its not sparkling form and must be taken on at the odds.

Just Sam - Good performance on last start in a seller, that race was won by a horse who then followed up in a decent claimer. The second and third have since run reasonably in another seller. This horse appeals to me as it ran really well before weakening in the final furlong, that was over a trip in excess of this. This looks the perfect opportunity for the horse to get a win under its belt. The horse is never that far away in this grade and has not really had the conditions in its favour like in this race, if he cannot get a good placing I would be disappointed. Will be a good price.

Oronsay - Career best effort last time out in a seller that was worse than this!! Found one too good but ran a cracker at massive odds. He pulled hard in rear, and made good progress before finding little. He needs to continue to improve to challenge the scorers here but that is within his realms. However, his attitude is questionable and can be readily opposed.

I am quite happy to side with Just Sam, hopefully at double figure odds.

GL all keep bets to a reasonable level in the early days of the week.

Stay lucky.