My bets for this weekend (so far):
Espanyol v
Valladolid @ 4.7 (taken at
Betfair earlier in the week, don't think that price is still around now though) 1.75pts
Reasons as given earlier in this thread, and since then Espanyol have gone and sold two important players in Zabaleta and Riera. Apparently they've got replacements lined up, but they've not signed yet.
Lay Atletico Madrid v Malaga @ 1.51 to win 2.5pts
Yes, they were impressive in midweek against Schalke, but the season's only just started and a game like that may have taken a bit out of the players ahead of the weekend. Never, ever trust Atletico Madrid at such a short price, especially not on the opening day of the season.
Deportivo v Real Madrid @ 3.9 2.5pts
Reasons mainly as given above. Madrid's defence still rather sieve-like - conceding 5 in 2 games against Valencia in the Super Cup, and beating Sporting Lisbon 5-3 in a friendly in midweek. Depor looked solid enough in beating Hajduk Split on Thursday. And just to repeat again, Madrid have taken just 5pts from their last 15 visits here.
Levante v Zaragoza @ 3.9 1.25pts
Zaragoza clear favourites for the title this season, and Levante have lost a lot of players in pre-season, but it's still two sides that were in the Primera last season, and Levante won the corresponding fixture last year 2-1. Too big a price for the home side.
Real Sociedad v
Las Palmas @ 5.5 1pt
Don't ask me why, I've just got a feeling about this one. Huge price on a team that ended last season in pretty good form (7 wins and 5 draws from their last 13). Sociedad can be vulnerable at home, and last season lost as many games at home as they did away (5).
Missed the boat on Celta - they were available at longer than evens earlier in the week, that price didn't last long though, and they're too short now.
And lastly one in the Segunda B group 2
Cartagena v Linares
over 2.5 goals @ 2.4 (Sporting Odds) 1.75pts
Cartagena's home games last season tended to produce quite a few goals, conceding a goal a game on average, and scoring just short of 1.5 goals per game. Corresponding fixture finished 3-1 last season, and with Linares' problems as mentioned earlier in this thread, a similar scoreline wouldn't be a surprise here.
Also tempted by Valencia tonight, possibly even a handicap bet, but will make my mind up on that one later.