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After the nightmares of the last couple of years, the organisers of the Tour de France will be desperately hoping the headlines are made for the right reasons over the next three weeks.

The race was ruined by more positive doping tests as well as the sacking of race leader Michael Rasmussen 12 months ago and the fallout is still having a major effect.

Eventual winner Alberto Contador has been prevented from defending his title through no fault of his own as his new team Astana have been barred from this year's race by Tour organisers.

And as Contador's hugely impressive victory in the Giro d'Italia showed, he's unquestionably the best around right now.

It all means that the betting has a markedly different look to 12 months ago and it should make for the most open race in a decade.

The route is also a big factor as there's no prologue for the first time since the 1960s and the time trials have also been markedly reduced.

We'll now take a look at the six men the bookies see as the main contenders, along with the cyclist we feel is the best longshot, before giving our verdict on who is likely to be wearing yellow in Paris on July 27.

Cadel Evans
In the absence of Contador, Evans heads into this year's Tour de France as the clear favourite. His form figures are good - eighth, fourth and then runner-up last year when he also picked up his first stage victory. He's also gone well in the Vuelta a Espana and looks the best all-rounder so the credentials are there as he aims to become the first Australian winner of the Tour. His chances have been further boosted this year by Lotto's signing of Yaroslav Popovych as his chief lieutenant as the tough Ukrainian helped Contador to victory with Discovery last year. The build up this season has gone smoothly too - he won the fourth stage of the Paris-Nice race on the brutal Mont Ventoux climb. He has several other stage wins to his name around Europe, including a second in the Dauphine Libere, his final warm-up race. Since then he's been fine tuning things in training and having gone within 23 seconds of winning last year's Tour de France, he looks the man to beat this time around. The problem though is his price, which looks skinny as around the 7/4 mark.

Alejandro Valverde
Spaniards have won the last two runnings of the Tour de France and there are plenty of reasons for thinking that Valverde can make it a hat-trick this year. The 'Green Bullet' has a cracking CV - Classics wins in the La Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege showing one dimension and second, third and fourth place finishes in the Vuelta a Espana another. He also heads into this year's race as the man in form after an impressive success in the Dauphine Libere when he got the better of Evans thanks to his victory in the time trial. Success in the Tour itself has largely proved elusive but there have been flashes of brilliance - his victory on the climb to Courchevel in 2005 ahead of Lance Armstrong being a prime example. And he started to deliver on all that promise last year when his sixth-placed finish would have been even better but for a shocking time trial in Albi. This year's route, with just two-time trials (and only 82km in distance) should favour Valverde more than most and his preparation suggests he's spot-on heading into the race.

Denis Menchov
Menchov is among the leading contenders this year but his record in the Tour de France is actually pretty average, with just one top ten finish (2006) in his seven attempts. He pulled out last year in disillusionment after team-mate and race leader Michael Rasmussen was booted out of the race but just a month later he was winning the Vuelta a Espana. That sort of form is inshort supply in this year's Tour de France - Damiano Cunego's Giro d'Italia victory in 2004 about the only triumph that's in the same league - but the question now is whether Menchov can replicate it. The mountains have occasionally found out the Russian in the past and they'll make or break his bid again this year, especially as there are some real brutes such as Alpe d'Huez and the Hautacam. A fifth-placed finish in the Giro d'Italia, just over three-and-a-half minutes behind Contador, was encouraging but the lack of time trials in this year's route and his mixed Tour de France record are enough to put us off backing him.

Damiano Cunego
The 26-year-old Italian is a fascinating contender for this year's Tour and in with a real chance despite this being only his second appearance in the race. He burst onto the scene in spectacular style by winning the 2004 Giro d'Italia as a 22-year-old but an infection - mononucleosis - which he contracted the winter afterwards held him back. He showed he'd lost none of his ability when winning the white jersey for the best young rider on his debut in the Tour de France in 2006 and he showed with podium finishes on the stages into L'Alpe D'Huez and Morzine that he can live with the very best climbers. He shocked Italian cycling fans when choosing to bypass this year's Giro d'Italia in favour of the Tour de France (on account of the respective routes) and that's a real hint to his chances. His preparation has gone well too and in a year where there are few outstanding candidates, he might just prove to be a cut above the rest.

Carlos Sastre
There's no knocking Sastre's consistency in the Tour de France but the 33-year-old Spaniard has yet to really show he's got what it takes to win the race. No one in this year's field can match his record - since his debut in 2001 when he finished 20th, he's finished every Tour and made the top ten every year except 2005. Last season saw him just miss out in a podium slot in fourth but the downside is that he's managed just one stage success (back in 2003) and only four in his career as a whole. There were signs of a more positive gameplan as he finished second to Menchov in the 2007 Vuelta but it's asking a lot of him to suddenly change his style and a subdued 20th-placed finish in the Dauphine Libere doesn't bode well either. Another question mark against him is that while he goes into the Tour as the CSC team leader, the pecking order could easily come under pressure if teammates Andy or Frank Schleck start well.

Andy Schleck
Schleck only turned 23 in June and has never raced in the Tour de France but he's already been talked about as one of the leading contenders for this year's race. That possibly says as much about the lack of big names in the race this year but it's also an illustration of just how far he's come in a short space of time. He made his name with a stunning second-placed finish in the Giro d'Italia and it will surely only be a matter of time before he gets himself in contention in the Tour de France. And while there's clearly an argument this year that he's too young and has no Tour experience, neither of those factors held him back in the Giro. What does need bearing in mind though is that his main job at the outset is to try and help CSC team leader Carlos Sastre to victory so a watching brief has to be the call for now.

Kim Kirchen
He served notice that he could be a factor in the Tour de France with a seven-placed finish last year - which was some step-up from his previous best of 63rd. And his impressive victory in the Fleche Wallonne Classic in April - with none other than Cadel Evans in second - only served to back up that impression. That suggested that the emphasis onclimbing in this year's route should be right up his street, as does his second place in last year's Tour of Switzerland. And the Luxembourger is now the High Road team's top general classification hope too after the news that Michael Rogers has been omitted from their nine-man line-up. He's targeted a top-five finish in the Tour this season and, in a relatively weak year, that looks an achievable objective. Indeed those looking for a decent long-shot to give them a run for their money could do worse than taking the 40/1 on offer about Kirchen.

VERDICT:
Our three to follow on what should be a wide-open Tour are Alejandro Valverde, Damiano Cunego and Kim Kirchen.

We've nothing against market leader Cadel Evans but can't help feeling he's no 7/4 shot and it also remains to be seen how he copes with the pressure of being race favourite.

In our view there shouldn't be much to separate him and Valverde so the Spaniard has to be the bet at 9/2.

The route should suit him perfectly and he looked great in the Dauphine Libere.

Cunego is on offer at 14/1 but that price could be generous because he's another who should thrive from the emphasis being very much on the big mountain stages.

The lack of a significant time trial early on means he should be bang in contention and the fact he's bypassed the Giro to concentrate his efforts on the Tour is a big pointer too.

Having said the Tour is wide-open this year, it would be wrong not to look further down the list for a spot on value and Kirchen fits the bill.

He's shown that on his day he's a match for anyone and while his poor display in the time trial at the Tour of Switzerland is a worry, he's another who gets a route that plays very much to his strengths.

At 40/1 and a quarter the odds a place, he's well worth adding to our staking plan.

Moving briefly to the green jersey and it's hard to find an angle because Thor Hushovd thoroughly deserves his position at the top of the market.

Both Tom Boonen and Daniele Bennati would have been strong fancies but they miss out for contrasting reasons.

And the next three in the market - Oscar Freire, Robbie McEwen and Mark Cavendish - are all similar types of sprinters and will take plenty of points off each other.

We wouldn't put Cavendish in contention - it's highly debatable whether he'll finish the Tour - but the young Brit is a real force to be reckoned with in the individual stages as he's just showed at the Giro.

Indeed it's well worth keeping an eye out for a price on Cavendish to win at least one stage in this year's race, though nothing is available at the time of writing.

As far as the specials which are available are concerned, the winning margin is an interesting one this year. Because with no outstanding candidate likely to run away with the race and the lack of time bonuses and reduced time trials, there's every chance of a close finish.

Just 23 seconds separated Contador and Evans at the finish line in Paris 12 months ago and the 4/1 chalked up by Blue Square about 0-30 seconds may just be worth an interest.

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