[Beanie]

10 to qualify - 9 by voting, 1 by back up jury.

Righty ho.

Will start by counting some out straight away...

Due to a poor draw and just god awful songs, Estonia, Moldova and Belgium are gone before we start IMO.

I'm highly sceptical of the chances of the small central European nations too - Andorra and San Marino have no traditional allies, and Andorra failed to get out of last years semi final with a more fancied song. They are both towards the middle of the semi and it'll be touch and go whether either can get enough support to make it. San Marino could go close but I'd suggest neither will quite do enough in what is a very tough semi final.

The Netherlands too, altho it isnt the worst song, lack any strong friendships in this semi, have traditionally struggled for votes, and are sandwiched among a lot of strong acts.

Let's get the prices up for the rest...

1 Montenegro - 3.65 - Looks about right - good starting slot but nothing good about the song.
2 Israel - 2.26 - Yet to make my mind up on that one - had written it off but rehearsal is strong.
7 Azerbaijan 1.67 - Seems to have support in the polls but a strange choice of song.
8 Slovenia - 1.77 - Rehearsal was very poor, will need to improve given the dodgy starting slot.
9 Norway - 1.64 - Catchy little song but nothing inspiration. Should be solid enough to qualify here.
10 Poland - 2.06 - well presented and sung effort - not sure.
11 Ireland - 1.55 - Tough qualifying spot - this might just struggle.
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina - 1.30 - funny ditty. Should qualify but I'll probably avoid at those odds.
14 Armenia - 1.08 - Looks nailed on.
16 Finland - 2.18 - Clumped in with the contenders, this will really struggle for votes.
17 Romania - 1.27 - good song, well sung, and a strong starting slot. Sails through.
18 Russia - 1.06 - No problems.
19 Greece - 1.20 - Its the type of song that can be vulnerable but starting slot should have it safely though.

Might aswell stick the others in I guess...

Andorra - 2.30
San Marino - 4.20
Belgium - 2.82
Moldova - 2.74
Estonia - 3
Netherlands - 3.35