[mrmuzeman]

I know Reading need the win and Derby are shite but the odds are just wrong in this game imo. Derby have actually gained 1 more point at home than Reading have away this season.

Not that I think Reading shouldnt be favourites, they should be they are a better team and have more motivation but 8/13 for a team with only 1 away win all season? No way, but still relying on Derby is not something I would like to put money on. But due to Readings stupidly low price there is a betting opportunity available I believe represents good value, which is Derby +1 at Evens. If Reading win by 1 goal you get your money back. If they fail to win the bet wins.

So at Even money it comes down to 1 question, whats more likely - a comprehensive Reading win or a Draw/Derby win.

Derbys home record - 1-5-12.

Of those 12 losses, 6 were losses by 1 goal and 6 were 2goal+ losses. Who beat them by 2 goals or more? Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Villa, Spurs and West Ham. In other words all excellent/good/top half teams. Not a single crap/bottom half team has gone to Pride Park and beaten Derby by 2 goals or more and surprisingly Man U and Liverpool only won by the 1 goal.

Couple that with another big factor that Reading havent even scored a goal for 6 games on the trot and youve got a pretty good case for Derby -1 I think. Nothing points to a comfortable Reading win at all.