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Portsmouth v Fulham

Unbelievably, Premier League survival is in Fulham's hands. A few weeks ago they were written off and following the 3-1 home defeat to Sunderland, only a fool would have given them a chance of beating the drop. But, in true dramatic fashion, summed up by their stunning comeback against Manchester City two weeks ago where they came back from two down to win 3-2 with all their goals coming in the last 20 minutes, they are now just a final-day victory away from safety. They travel to Portsmouth on Sunday looking for a third successive away triumph and at 6/5 with Paddy Power that's where we're putting our money. Tipping Fulham to pick up three points away from home would have seemed ludicrous before their 2-0 win at Reading on April 12 - the first of a kind since September 2006 - but now they've well and truly overcome their jinx and we can't really expect Portsmouth to offer much serious opposition. Sure, we'll all be told Pompey players will have professional pride to play for and will also want to give their fans something to cheer in the final game at Fratton Park this season, but if we're being honest, there isn't any true motivation. With the FA Cup final absorbing all their focus and interest, the last thing anyone wants is an injury while they'll all want to stay as fresh as possible given their opponents Cardiff will enjoy an extra week of rest. Harry Redknapp has previously said he only cares now about the Cup final and his team have certainly backed that up with three defeats on the bounce and only one goal in the last four. In their previous two home games they drew 0-0 with Newcastle before a disappointing 1-0 loss to Blackburn and we're expecting a similar trend to continue on survival Sunday, with Fulham picking up the all-important win.

Verdict: Portsmouth 0 Fulham 2 (CH)

Birmingham v Blackburn

Birmingham look a side on the way out of the Premier League following a depressing run which has seen them take just two points from the last five crucial games to leave them second bottom, one point behind Reading and Fulham. Destiny is not in their own hands and to stand any chance of surviving they must beat Blackburn and hope Portsmouth and Derby get at least a draw in their respective games with the Cottagers and the Royals. It's certainly looking bleak and the failure to defeat Liverpool when 2-0 up at St Andrews two weeks ago has really hit them hard. Generally speaking at this time of year at the bottom of the table there are two types of teams - ones with momentum and ones who plummet like a stone and Birmingham fall into the latter category. Confidence is low and on Sunday they host a Blackburn side who are aiming to finish the season in sixth. Compared with other final day fixtures, this is far from easy. Birmingham have only won five games on their own patch this season and only two during this calendar year while Rovers have impressed away from home with seven wins, including a 1-0 triumph over Portsmouth on their last trip. Obviously Birmingham will be fired up in front of a passionate crowd as they fight for their lives but if they don't get the early goal and find out other results are going against them - as we expect to happen - then their drive and enthusiasm will no doubt be flattened, allowing the visitors to go for the kill as they target an Intertoto Cup spot. Overall we feel a Blackburn triumph is well worth a bet at 11/4 with Paddy Power and as a result Birmingham will be waving goodbye to the Promised Land.

Verdict: Birmingham 1 Blackburn 2 (CH)

Chelsea v Bolton

Only a freak pair of scorelines in this game and at Derby will threaten Bolton's safety althoughpessimistic Trotters fans will tell you that a 6-0 loss here and 5-0 win for Reading at Derby isn't impossible. Chelsea will certainly be going all out for the win as they need to better Manchester United's result at Wigan to snatch the title away from Sir Alex but, presuming that Avram Grant keeps his players informed (if he doesn't the crowd will), it will be difficult for Chelsea to stay motivated if news filters through that United are 3-0 up at the JJB. And that makes punting on this game tricky. If Chelsea simply had to outscore United to win the title, we'd take the Blues to rack up a heavy win. But they might want to stick rather than twist if getting 2-0 up while if United are cruising home the will to push on from a similar scoreline will diminish. In any case, Chelsea scoring four goals or more is only 9/4 and Bolton have only conceded once in the last four anyway. As far as the match market is concerned this is one to bet in-running rather than take a definite stance beforehand but we will make an anytime goalscorer play. Michael Ballack has really found his scoring touch of late with three goals in the last two Premier League games and, with confidence high, he's worth a punt at 11/4 with Hills to find the net again.

Verdict: Chelsea 2 Bolton 0 (DT)

Derby v Reading

Derby bring the curtain down on the worst Premier League season in history but will the game also spell curtains for Reading's survival hopes? And if that sounds like a clumsy and appalling piece of word play, it could well mirror the action on the pitch at Pride Park. Derby are quite clearly beyond hopeless and, in theory, this is an open goal for Reading as they seek the win that will give them a decent chance of survival. But the big problem for Reading is that they haven't scored in any of their last six Premier League games. That collective lack of confidence in front of goal could yet come back to haunt them and although Derby's comedy defensive unit will give the Royals plenty of opportunities, will they be able to take them? The longer the game stays 0-0, the more Reading's players will start snatching at their opportunities and backing the visitors at 8/13 is just not an option. Again, events elsewhere may affect how this game unfolds so, for several reasons, it doesn't look the greatest of games to bet on.

Verdict: Derby 1 Reading 1 (DT)

Everton v Newcastle

Everton will have half an eye on what Aston Villa are up to at West Ham but the bottom line for the Toffees is that a point will seal fifth place and UEFA Cup football next season. There's little doubt that David Moyes' men are running on empty - and also badly missing Tim Cahill and Mikel Arteta - but they are odds-on across the board to net the victory here. It will be fascinating to see how Newcastle's players and fans respond to Kevin Keegan's comments earlier this week about their prospects of making the big four because they are taking on a side in Everton which has come closest of all to breaking the monopoly. The Magpies were beaten 2-0 by Chelsea on Bank Holiday Monday but the performance itself was pretty decent and they should probably have been ahead at the break. That was actually their first defeat since the beginning of March and underlines that they are a far tougher proposition now than they have been for a while. They also beat Everton 3-2 at St James' earlier in the campaign when the Toffees were in the midst of a rare poor run - exactly as they are at present. Everton have managed just one win in eight - and that includes games against the likes of Fulham, Birmingham and Derby - so make limited appeal at 4/5, especially as they'll be perfectly happy with a draw. Indeed that outcome looks the obvious route from a bettingperspective at 5/2 given the relative form of the two sides.

Verdict: Everton 1 Newcastle 1 (JT)

Middlesbrough v Man City

This is about as dead rubber as they come with the now safe Middlesbrough hosting a Manchester City side floating calmly in upper mid-table security. Boro made sure of their place in next season's top flight with their 2-0 triumph at home to Portsmouth last week and now the club can breath a sigh of relief once and for all. Gareth Southgate's men have been extremely inconsistent this season and it's never easy to predict what they're going to deliver. On the one hand they've picked up draws at Arsenal and Spurs since the start of March while giving Manchester United a scare in April's 2-2 draw but they've also lost to Bolton and Sunderland in recent weeks. They're very hit and miss at the Riverside with six wins and seven defeats in the Premier League and on a good day they should beat City, who have lost eight on the road this campaign. If the visitors' lethargic performance at Liverpool is anything to go by, then we can expect their players to look as if they're already on their holidays. With Sven-Goran Eriksson widely expected to leave in the summer there is no incentive to impress him so weighing all the factors up we're going for a home win. For added value we're advising you to take Paddy Power's 13/5 about the hosts winning to nil.

Verdict: Middlesbrough 2 Man City 0 (CH)

Sunderland v Arsenal

Another match with precious little on the line although Sunderland will be aiming to end their season on a high in front of their own fans having successfully avoided relegation. Indeed it's their impressive form at the Stadium of Light which has ensured survival while their habit of fighting right until the end to grab late goals has earned them crucial points throughout the campaign. Roy Keane's men have won nine games at home in the league - only the top six and Man City can boast better records - but they have lost all seven matches against the 'Big Four' so far and have generally seemed fazed on these occasions. That said they put in a plucky display during the 3-2 defeat at Arsenal earlier this season and we think they can go one better and grind out a draw this time around. The Gunners have endured another trophyless campaign and despite their promising start, slipped away in the third quarter leaving them with nothing to play for at the business end of the season. Recent results suggest they've thrived on a lack of pressure but beating Derby 6-2 is very misleading given how the Rams are now officially the worst Premier League team in history. For this encounter we're siding with the draw at 11/4 with bet365 but we're very interested in snapping up William Hill's 9/4 about Nicklas Bendtner scoring anytime. The young striker has started the last two games and scored in each of them so if he's given the nod once again he could bring you into profit.

Verdict: Sunderland 1 Arsenal 1 (CH)

Tottenham v Liverpool

This could have been plenty riding on this White Hart Lane clash but both sides have come up short in terms of league ambitions and it's now no more than a bit of fun in the sun. That doesn't exactly bode well for a punt although there's a line of thought that Spurs could coax a high-scoring contest out of the Merseysiders, who normally save such goal-fests for Cup finals. Spurs haven't been as prolific in the run-in, netting just a single goal in their last six fixtures, but they are still creating plenty of chances. Four of those games have ended in 1-1 draws and given that five of the last meetings against Liverpool have also ended in stalemate (two 1-1s, two 2-2s and a 0-0) a scoring draw looks a pretty decent call. Liverpoolare hard to beat - they've lost less games than Manchester United - but their title bid has been hampered by draws in these sort of games. 0-0 doesn't look too likely given the attacking talent on show so 1-1 and 2-2 (the score at Anfield earlier this season) looks the best way to go for a correct score punt. It's 16/1 for a 'Desmond' at bet365 and that seems worth a small play given that Paddy Power make 2-2 just 9/1. Goalscorer punters might want to try the 9/4 about Robbie Keane finding the net. He scored both Tottenham's goals in the reverse fixture and also netted the winner at Reading last week.

Verdict: Tottenham 2 Liverpool 2 (DT)

West Ham v Aston Villa

West Ham rolled over far too easily against Manchester United last week and they were rarely a factor once Ronaldo put the title-chasing Red Devils in front inside three minutes. And the motivation in this match is all with Aston Villa who still have designs on a UEFA Cup slot. However it was a huge surprise to see Villa turned over at home by Wigan last weekend because they'd been on a great run of form up to that - 10 points out of 12 and no fewer than 17 goals scored in those four games. The continued speculation over skipper Gareth Barry probably isn't helping them and the win/lose/draw market looks one to sit out from a betting perspective. That point is underlined by West Ham's wildly contrasting form, even in the space of 90 minutes as anyone who saw their last home game against Newcastle will testify. However we do expect goals and the 5/2 Hills chalk up about Gabriel Agbonlahor being one of those to find the net does appeal. He's scored in four of his last five matches and had three good chances against Wigan last week to make it five out of five.

Verdict: West Ham 2 Aston Villa 2 (JT)

Wigan Athletic v Man Utd

Chelsea fans with a penchant for conspiracy theories will have spent plenty of time in the build-up to Sunday muttering discontentedly. After all, Wigan secured their safety last week and they're managed by a Manchester United old boy. If anything though, Steve Bruce will be even more keen than usual to show that his team are putting in a big effort, especially after West Ham capitulated so tamely at Old Trafford last week. Having said that, the overwhelming feeling in this one is that United aren't going to let the title slip now. So however hard Wigan try, the visitors will be giving it just that little bit extra and that should allow United's extra class to tell. Although this is Bruce's team, United have an outstanding record against Wigan in the recent past and the six meetings since the Latics were promoted have produced scorelines of 4-0, 4-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-1 and 4-0. If United get their noses in front early and get some daylight with a second, we think they have an excellent chance of letting their hair down and clinching the title in emphatic style. Therefore, backing United to score four or more goals - an outcome with a 50% strike rate in the last six fixtures between the two - is worth a small play at 4/1.

Verdict: Wigan 1 Manchester United 4

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