Thread: Trends
View Single Post
Old 04-05-2008, 00:39
jtw1 jtw1 jest offline
jtw1
  
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1465
Thanks: 0
Thanked 6 Times in 6 Posts
Re: Trends

Cheers mate , to be honest i can't recall ever having a better winning streak in 30 years of punting !!!! long may it continue .


1000 gns
---------

10/10 were returned at 14/1 or under [3 favs ]
9/10 had won once in prev 2 outings
9/10 had won at least 2 races
9/10 had won at leats at Grp 3 level
9/10 sires ave was 7.9f - 10.7f
4/5 that had ran that season had won
9/10 had ran between 3-7 times
8/10 had ran at Newmarket [ 6 had won at course ] , the other two were trained outside of UK.


It looks like the following will start at 14/1 or UNDER for the 2nd Classic of the season.

NATAGORA has ran 5 times , won on it's seasonal reappearance , won 4 in total at Grp 1,2 + 3 level of which the last was a course win. May try and make all imo. No French trained winner in past 10 years.

INFALLIBLE has ran only twice [ won both however ] inc a win this season in the NELL GWYN at Newmarket . It's has a negative however as it's sires winning ave is only 7.6f.

SPACIOUS only had 2 previous outings [ won both , although none at Newmarket ] and won at Grp 2 level and sires winning ave is 9.7f.

MUTHABARA has a 100% record from it's 3 runs and one of those was a Grp 3 race and it's sires ave is 8.7f . However it has no experience of the track.

KITTY MATCHAM comes from AP O'BRIENS stable and has ran 5 times , winning twice [ inc one at Grp 2 level ] .Sires winning ave is 9.5f and is a course winner .

SAVETHISDANCEFOME is AP O'BRIEN'S 2nd string and has only won at Listed level so i'll be surprised if this one wins.


SUMMARY - NATAGORA has a Favs chance but i have doubts about whether it will stay the 8f at this level .
INFALLIBLE'S sires ave is enough to put me off , while SPACIOUS + MUTHABARA have no experience of the track.
SAVETHISDANCEFORME looks out of it's depth so i'm selecting it's stable companion KITTY MATCHAM to win this at decent odds
Reply With Quote