
01-05-2008, 15:53
|
 |
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 65290
|
|
|
Re: 1st May UEFA Cup Semi's 2nd Leg
Quote:
It's been an amazing season for Rangers but all the signs suggest they are starting to run out of steam.
The SPL title seemed a formality just a couple of weeks ago but two Old Firm defeats to Celtic have blasted it wide open and the injuries continue to pile up for Walter Smith's men.
The quad is still on but they travel to Fiorentina on Thursday night for the second leg of their UEFA Cup semi-final without key men.
And crucially this time it's the defence which is affected.
They may have been below strength in the first leg at Ibrox but the back four remained intact - and a fourth successive clean sheet at home in Europe was duly achieved.
But the Gers must now do without central defender David Weir in addition to keeper Allan McGregor and that's got to be a concern, with even assistant manager Ally McCoist admitting: "It goes without saying that the mainstays of the team have been the goalkeeper and the two centre-backs."
However it's been dangerous to underestimate Rangers away from home in the UEFA Cup this season because they've done what's required against Sporting Lisbon (again after a goalless first leg in Glasgow), Werder Bremen and Panathinaikos in the last three rounds.
They are also meeting a team in Fiorentina who themselves are fighting on more than one front at the business end of the season, with the Viola trying to hold off AC Milan in Serie A in the battle for the fourth Champions League spot.
It should all make for a far more open game than the first leg and the bet we're keen on is Rangers to score at 17/20 with Sportingbet.
As we've already mentioned, the Gers have been far more of a threat on their travels lately and the good news for them is that Fiorentina have struggled to keep clean sheets in Florence in this competition.
Indeed they've managed it just once in six matches.
PSV and Rosenborg have both scored at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in the knockout stages while in Group C both Mlada Boleslav and IF Elfsborg - hardly giants of European football - also found the net, as did FC Groningen in the first round.
And while Fiorentina pose a real attacking threat, that shakiness at the back - in evidence again as they drew 2-2 at home to Sampdoria at the weekend - could ultimately cost them.
Rangers are 7/4 to qualify from the tie but in their current state that remains a big ask and the 17/20 about them scoring - which they'll have to do to go through unless they win on penalties after another 0-0 draw - looks a far better option.
Moving to the second semi-final and Bayern Munich are strong favourites to go through against Zenit St Petersburg despite being held to a 1-1 draw at home in the first leg.
Bayern have been the long-time market leaders for this trophy but they've often failed to convince and went perilously close to going out in the quarter-finals against Getafe.
And that hit-and-miss UEFA Cup form came despite Bayern running away with things in Germany - they've already won the League Cup, DFB-Pokal and are one point away from securing the Bundesliga with four games of the season remaining.
That does mean the games have been coming thick and fast though and Zenit looked the fresher side towards the end of the first leg.
On the plus side for Bayern is the return from suspension of UEFA Cup leading scorer Luca Toni while midfielder Mark van Bommel and striker Miroslav Klose should both be okay to play despite broken noses.
Indeed it's Zenit who have been hit hard by suspensions ahead of the second leg - Fernando Ricksen, Andrei Arshavin and Radek Sirl all missing out after collecting cautions at the Allianz Arena.
So while we're sorely tempted to get with Zenit to go through at 6/4, now probably isn't the best time to oppose Bayern.
And the best betting angle on the match could come on the bookings because plenty of yellow cards have been a feature of Zenit matches at home in the UEFA Cup .
Their last six matches in Russia have all featured at least three cautions and the average make-up (10pts per yellow, 25pts per red) during that period is 57.5.
With the match so finely balanced and so much at stake there's an obvious potential for another high points tally.
And that's not offset by the fact that Norwegian referee Tom Henning will take charge.
British viewers saw him book nine players and red card another as Liverpool beat Inter in Milan in the second leg of their last 16 clash in the Champions League in March, while Henning was also given one of the semi-finals in the UEFA Cup 12 months ago - flashing four yellows and one red in Espanyol v Werder Bremen.
It all means that the 13/8 about more than 55pts, which would have collected in half of Zenit's last six home games, is the percentage call.
|
Betting Zone - Racing Betting, Football Betting, Cricket Betting, Golf Betting, Rugby Betting, Sports Betting
|