Quote:
Originally Posted by Wittmann 44
There are statistical tests that can show whether your results are the result of luck or indicate whether or not you are beating luck / chance. The chi test is the most well know. The bigger the sample / longer the testing the better. It is common sense that turning a profit after 50 bets can be just luck but doing it over 500 is a lot more likely to be due to your forecasting skill. The fact that you haven’t gone to real money makes me think that you yourself aren’t fully convinced yet.
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Im not fully convinced in myself as yet. The reason being is because in the past a system has proven fruitful during paper trading, and has then completely fallen over once i begin to use it. For this reason i am hoping to get a large paper trial before any betting takes place.
Each 2hr run last for 12 races, therefore 12 bets. Which means so far i have made 144 trial bets with the system.
Stastically this system will make a healthy profit. However, the dogs also has a large element of luck to it, with only 6 runners over a short distance a 1/1 favourite can be knocked straight out of the running within 100yards of the race, or 3 dogs can pile into each other in the corner, leaving the 20/1 dog to win. I think the dogs has a massive portion of luck attached to it.