Quote:
Originally Posted by Seen
Weight would be number 1 in order of importance - people keep saying "this is the year when the winner will carry more than 11st" but they've been saying that for the last 7 years at least. It might well happen this year but that doesn't mean they're not at a huge disadvantage.
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Seen,
Would never disagree with your analysis about weights as its practically the first thing I look at in the National field, usually draw a line at 11st and rule out anything above that and you have knocked out a fair percentage of the field.
You can see the last few winners
1984 Hallo Dandy 10 10-02
1985 Last Suspect 11 10-05
1986 West Tip 9 10-11
1987 Maori Venture 11 10-13
1988 Rhyme 'n' Reason 9 11-00
1989 Little Polveir 12 10-03
1990 Mr Frisk 11 10-06
1991 Seagram 11 10-06
1992 Party Politics 8 10-07
1994 Miinnehoma 11 10-08
1995 Royal Athlete 12 10-06
1996 Rough Quest 10 10-07
1997 Lord Gyllene 9 10-00
1998 Earth Summit 10 10-05
1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-00
2000 Papillon 9 10-12
2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11
2002 Bindaree 8 10-04
2003 Monty's Pass 10 10-07
2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10
2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-01
2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-08
2007 Silver Birch 10 10-06
And its only been the pretty exceptional Hedgehunter that has carried over the 11st mark and then it was only 1lb over.
However have you any thoughts on this year maybe being a little bit different in terms of weight carrying?
Reason I am thinking this is that in most years the National is 40 runners and in most years bottom weight is 10st. Sure there maybe a couple running out of the handicap but there is usually a fair few who are running of their proper weights but who are running with much lighter weights than those carrying 11st and above.
But looking at this years field and now that Ollie Magern is out it looks like the 40th horse, at the moment, is going to be Philson Run but its going to be carrying 10-8.
While its still a big ask to carry more than 11st to win there is also not as many lighter weighted horses in the race this year. 14 of the above winners all carried less than 10-8 to win and you can understand them being at an advantage running over such a distance in previous years over those carrying 11st+.
This year the biggest advantage over the 11st+ horses is only going to be 6lbs, not the upto 1st it has been in previous years.
I know you said that everyone says each year that this will be the year a heavier weighted one wins and I have to admit I usually dismiss this out of hand but this year it would be a bit more likely IMO due to the compression of the weights/handicap.