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Originally Posted by Martens
if somebody comes and tell me that he makes profit after betting or trading on tennis, i am sorry but i will not take it.
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Martens - I'm in profit for tennis so far this year
Not much, admittedly, but I am in profit. The way to look at it is to try to take advantage of those parameters you mention, looking to see which players may be suffering from any of those factors you mention. There's very often value to be had in backing the underdogs.
Anyway, a couple for me today. Starting off with a copy and paste from a post I made in the Indian Wells thread:
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No denying Wozniacki is a very promising player, and she's had some impressive results in the opening few rounds here, but to date she's come up very short every time she meets any of the top players. Since October, she's lost twice to Venus Williams (6-2 6-2 and 6-3 7-5), 6-1 7-5 to Ivanovic, 6-0 6-1 to Sharapova and 6-0 6-2 to Davenport. That's straight sets every time, and losing by 5 or more games every time. She's still only 17, and maybe not quite prepared yet mentally for the matches against the top players. I'll take Kuznetsova to dish out a similar punishment today.
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Kuznetsova did indeed dish out a similar punishment. Substitute Kuznetsova for Venus Williams and apply to today's match. Until Wozniacki's proven she's got the mental strength to deal with the top players, I'll keep opposing her in these games.
Venus 2-0 @ 1.85 4pts
Venus -4.5 games @ 1.833 2pts
I know I've said a few times how I think Peer is over-rated, but I still think she's worth a shot today. We've already seen 3 of the 4 finalists from Indian Wells going out early (Djokovic, Fish and Ivanovic), Kuznetsova is the only one left, and she's struggled this week, losing a set to Chan in the first round and saving a match point against Azarenka who appeared to choke badly, losing 10 games in a row
H2H is 2-2, with the hard court meetings being 2-1 to Peer, all since 2007.
Lay Kuznetsova @ 1.48, liability 2pts
Lastly, Sela to beat Acasuso. Seem to be swimming against the tide somewhat with this bet, most places I've looked at people seem to be backing Acasuso, but I really can't justify Acasuso being favourite for this one. He's got a 26-42 record on hard courts, and while he may have had a decent result last round beating Hewitt, Sela has also done well, getting past H-T Lee who must've been high on confidence after a good run at Indian Wells, and the out-of-form Robredo, both in straight sets. He's 49-19 on hard courts for the past year (albeit mainly at Challenger level), but I'd have him much shorter than the price on offer.
Sela @ 2.45 2pts
Now, after telling Martens it is possible to make a profit on tennis betting, watch as all three bets lose in style