UEFA Cup
Soccer - PSV Eindhoven/Tottenham - total Over 2½ (-103)
for the regulation time held on Mar 12 at 2:45pm [pending]
Going with my gut, not with my head, on this one. PSV shocked the Spurs in London last week 1-0, with bettors solidly on Tottenham and the overs. Now the play moves to the Netherlands, and this is just an incredible price for overs between these two teams.
Here's what speaks to unders in the game: PSV play a controlled game in ordinary circumstances (35-11 goal differential in 13 home games, with the 35 speaking more to their dominance of poorer Eredivisie teams than their attacking strength) and in this case have a 1-0 lead with an away goal in hand. They need only draw to advance to the Cup quarterfinals, and their number-one goal today is to keep a clean sheet. For their part, Tottenham is no longer the messy defending side they were before the coaching change, although their dodgy keeper Robinson gets off his line at least once every game. But the 6-4 games are a thing of the past, especially with King in the lineup.
So, why overs? Because, really, defense is not the Spurs' strength: attacking is. They dominated the play for the first half hour of the first leg and didn't score, but once behind they had several good chances to equalize...and their poor defending almost cost them a second away goal later. My feeling here is that the Spurs are once again overrated, but one thing we know they can do is attack, and PSV showed with their goal that they know how to play rope-a-dope. If the Spurs score, PSV must score to avoid this game going to extra time. Both teams are quite capable of putting in two today, so to me the line is an overreaction to the final score of the first leg.