Great stuff as ever, Stereoman...
having had a wee Oscars/BAFTA's marathon of DVD's ( China's great isn't it) and a gander at
Betfair... nothing really in the way of liquidity so the following is just my view...
BAFTA"s:
Best British Film:I am amazed that 'Atonement' is available at 1.44 for Best British film...seems a steal when against far better opposition for Best Film it's roughly the same! Enough liquidity to bet it as well.
Best Film:
There Will Be Blood..Also, an epic like TWBB, with the sort of majorly 'actORRRRRR' performance by the BRITISH born Day-Lewis,..... I think it has a very good chance of sneaking a surprise for Best Film at decent odds, with Atonement getting the Best British Film award.
Director: again
Anderson has weighed in with a fine EPIC, something that has been missing from the movie world for a while now.
Rising Star (voted for by the Public):
Ellen Page in Juno...brilliant. She carried the whole film as opposed to most of the other contenders.
Shia has been a bit overexposed lately, but his performances have stayed at a high level. Indiana Jones next!...he's made it...Shia..hebrew for 'gift from God'..well he's been given it already then, hasn't he?
JUNO's hot odds-on to win the Oscar for best original screenplay for 1st time hopeful Diablo Cody , but at the BAFTA's she's up against better opposition and no certainty, and as this is voted on by the public and not the Academy the likelyhood of Juno being watched by the demographic that votes in these things, combined with the numerous awards already for Page in other Film festivals, and her prominent profile across the board, makes her a terrific bet.
Adapted Screenplay:
There Will Be Blood...again the screenplay here is amazing...the arc of the film and Anderson's skill in maintaining the pace and tension over the period of time presented...coupled with a script that was parsed to the bone but stayed sharp throughout...Loved it.
Original Screenplay: Either American Gangsters or Michael Clayton.....Juno will be left to the Americans to praise, while BAFTA will reward a meatier subject here.
Foreign Film: will the board be controversial and go for Ang Lee's '
Lust, Caution'? The director has a quality track record, plus the nod to anything Chinese in Olympic year, along with being seen to be patrons of anti-censorship as Lee is refusing to make the required cuts to get a rating in USA...yep, this has possibilites.
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly...4 Oscar Nominations, 24 awards already and 27 noninations.....definitely close runner.
Oscars:
Best Film: "There Will Be Blood"...absolutely superb...this has the feeling of being a real monster 'EPIC-type bet' for me in view of all the votes for NCfOM....the Coen's have delivered a nice piece, but nothing on the scale of Anderson's TWBB. Day-Lewis shits on everyone else, and while the film itself is not out to please the standard viewer, the same can be said of the Coen's.
I liked Bardem's performance but as a movie that left you bathed in wonderment, or exhausted from the rollercoaster journey of emotions?...no way....I'm more inclined to 'lay' NCfOM at the Oscars. Too 'technical' I feel, rather than emotional depth and range as evinced in TWBB.
The Coen's are churning them out at the moment, so you know there will be other opportunities for their body of work to be recognised. That's my take.