Hi Rancid
I suggest that if you go to the football data website run by Joe Buchdahl which maintains historical odds and you fool around with a few seasons worth of results you will find very quickly that this “system” will lose you money very steadily.
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A number of points I would make
As Quandram says average odds are meaningless – many of the home wins are your Man Utds, Arsenals and Chelseas going off at very short odds – if you are using fixed staking the small returns on these games will not cancel out the losses on the losing away wins and draws (when the latter lose).
Taking last years Premiership Results and
Hills Odds for an example and 1 Unit Staking
47.89% Home Wins (Round to 48) => 182 Winners Returned
188.82 (avg home win ods 2.04)
25.79% Draws (Round to 26) => 98 Winners Returned 230.96 (avg draw ods 3.36)
26.32% Away (Round to 26) => 100 Losers
Taking those % and average odds (which are typical) and using 100 bets at 1 Unit Each
48 Home Winners => Returns 49.92 Units @ 2.04 Avg Odds
26 Draw Winners => Returns 61.36 Units @ 3.36 Avg Odds
Losing Bets => 52 Units on the Home Winners
Losing Bets => 74 Units on the Draw Winners
Total Losses 126 Units
Total Winners 111.28 Units
Loss = 14.72 Units (Negative Yield 7.36%*) *14.72/200
The average odds for the 2007 Premiership home/draw odds were incidentally 2.49.