I've always have a thing about half time draws.. I really believe if you can weed out the right matches you can reap the rewards..
Ok some people view it as a lottery, but generally you get teams who don't give anything away away from home or a team who tend to be cautious at home and first halves tend to be a bore draw as they cancel each other out. If you look at the odds on offer for a draw at half time it is usual evens at the minimum and then varying between 11/10 and 6/5. Of course you'll get the occasional biggie at 6/4 or 7/4, but thats normally for a full time banker! Howver although the odds are consistant, there are teams that are more likely to be tied at half time and therefore I presume have over-inflated odds..
Anyhoo, I've devised a basic system on each team based on one or two key factors, namely:-
1. Draws at half time so far this season
2. Average goals conceeded at half time
3. Average goals scored at half time
Put the two teams together and apply the average for the division and if it is well above the average of 100 then there's a good chance it will be a draw at half time..
I am initially testing this out with the English Leagues only
Of course I have decided to test this this weekend when very few league matches thanks to the FA Cup, but I have also identified a couple of FA Cup matches that should end up as draws at half time, so I shall try them out as well..
No cash involved in this by the way..
I havent tried this out before and therefore I reserve the right to pull the plug on this after a few weeks, if it is obvious I am communicating out of my anus...
Ok...I have decided to only identify matches with a rating of 120 or above, but this may change...
Only 1 match identified this week:-
Shrewsbury v Brentford (123.39) - 1 pt @ 6/5 (Bluesq)
However there are a couple of FA cup matches that qualify too..(Of course this may not be wise and if so I shall delete from the record...)
Sunderland v Wigan (142.01) - 1 pt @ 6/5 (Bluesq)
Barnsley v Blackpool (132.81) - 1 pt @ 6/5 (Bluesq)