I know everyone thinks the FIFA/UEFA rankings are a poor judge of how strong nations are, but apply them to
UEFA club teams and you seem to get some sort of correlation. It'll more thank likely be totally disproved tonight, but I'm going to test my theory.
Group A
This group has totally followed the
UEFA rankings, with the clubs from higher ranked nations beating those from lower ranked nations. I've ranked them via the difference in
UEFA coefficient, a positive number meaning the home team should hold the advantage, a negative meaning the away team should.
| AZ | Everton | 39.379 |
| 68.54 |
| -29.161 |
|
|
|
|
| Nurnberg | Everton | 44.364 |
| 68.54 |
| -24.176 |
| 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Larisa | Nurnberg | 25.497 |
| 44.364 |
| -18.867 |
|
|
|
|
| Larisa | Zenit | 25.497 |
| 36.125 |
| -10.628 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Zenit | Nurnberg | 36.125 |
| 44.364 |
| -8.239 |
| X | 2 | 2 |
| Zenit | AZ | 36.125 |
| 39.379 |
| -3.254 |
| X | 1 | 1 |
| Nurnberg | AZ | 44.364 |
| 39.379 |
| 4.985 |
| 1 | 2 | 1 |
| AZ | Larisa | 39.379 |
| 25.497 |
| 13.882 |
| 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Everton | Zenit | 68.54 |
| 36.125 |
| 32.415 |
| 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Everton | Larisa | 68.54 |
| 25.497 |
| 43.043 |
| 1 | 3 | 1 |
Looking at tonights games both away teams should have the upper hand. I know Everton are sending an understrength team to Holland so a handicap bet may be in order, while Nurnberg should beat Larissa.
Group B
| Kobenhavn | At.Madrid | 18.575 |
| 76.891 |
| -58.316 |
| 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Loko Moskva | At.Madrid | 36.125 |
| 76.891 |
| -40.766 |
| X | 3 | 3 |
| Panathinaikos | Loko Moskva | 25.497 |
| 36.125 |
| -10.628 |
| 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kobenhavn | Panathinaikos | 18.575 |
| 25.497 |
| -6.922 |
| 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Aberdeen | Loko Moskva | 30.5 |
| 36.125 |
| -5.625 |
| X | 1 | 1 |
| Panathinaikos | Aberdeen | 25.497 |
| 30.5 |
| -5.003 |
| 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Aberdeen | Kobenhavn | 30.5 |
| 18.575 |
| 11.925 |
|
|
|
|
| Loko Moskva | Kobenhavn | 36.125 |
| 18.575 |
| 17.55 |
| 2 | 0 | 1 |
| At.Madrid | Aberdeen | 76.891 |
| 30.5 |
| 46.391 |
| 1 | 2 | 0 |
| At.Madrid | Panathinaikos | 76.891 |
| 25.497 |
| 51.394 |
|
|
|
|
Group B looks a little more random, but on closer inspection the games which don't fit the pattern all feature Lokomotiv Moskva. Remove Loko and the system works again. In that case Atletico Madrid should win, whilst the Aberdeen v Kobenhavn game should be quite close, possibly bordering on an Aberdeen victory.
Group C
| AEK | Villareal | 25.497 |
| 76.891 |
| -51.394 |
|
|
|
|
| Mlada | Villareal | 26.825 |
| 76.891 |
| -50.066 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 |
| AEK | Fiorentina | 25.497 |
| 66.088 |
| -40.591 |
| X | 1 | 1 |
| Elfsborg | Mlada | 10.541 |
| 26.825 |
| -16.284 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Elfsborg | AEK | 10.541 |
| 25.497 |
| -14.956 |
| X | 1 | 1 |
| Mlada | AEK | 26.825 |
| 25.497 |
| 1.328 |
| 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Villareal | Fiorentina | 76.891 |
| 66.088 |
| 10.803 |
| X | 1 | 1 |
| Fiorentina | Mlada | 66.088 |
| 26.825 |
| 39.263 |
|
|
|
|
| Fiorentina | Elfsborg | 66.088 |
| 10.541 |
| 55.547 |
| 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Villareal | Elfsborg | 79.891 |
| 10.541 |
| 69.35 |
| 1 | 2 | 0 |
Group C looks a bit more random, especially with the away teams supremacy. Fiorentina should beat Mlada easily enough, whilst a Villareal "Draw No Bet" may be the call against AEK.
Group D
| Zagreb | Hamburg | 10.708 |
| 44.364 |
| -33.656 |
| 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Basel | Rennes | 23.85 |
| 53.656 |
| -29.806 |
| 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brann | Hamburg | 19.725 |
| 44.364 |
| -24.639 |
| 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Zagreb | Basel | 10.708 |
| 23.85 |
| -13.142 |
| X | 0 | 0 |
| Hamburg | Rennes | 44.364 |
| 53.656 |
| -9.292 |
| 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Basel | Brann | 23.85 |
| 19.725 |
| 4.125 |
| 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brann | Zagreb | 19.725 |
| 10.708 |
| 9.017 |
| 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Hamburg | Basel | 44.364 |
| 23.85 |
| 20.514 |
|
|
|
|
| Rennes | Brann | 53.656 |
| 19.725 |
| 33.931 |
| X | 1 | 1 |
| Rennes | Zagreb | 53.656 |
| 10.708 |
| 42.948 |
|
|
|
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Again, this group looks very random, but remove the results of Rennes, who don't seem to have been trying very hard, and the system looks like working again. With this in mind a bet on Hamburg looks the way to go, probably best to avoid betting on Rennes though (or maybe even opposing them).
I'll post up some test bets for this, which I will be following with real money, after I've also looked at team news, etc.