Hope you don't mind me posting some thoughts from my blog...
There’s just 6 games tonight in the final Matchday of the Champions League Group Stages as AC Milan and Celtic both secured their final 16 places last week. With Chelsea already through the pressure is on Liverpool to make it through to keep a British clean sweep a possibility.
The Reds have a tough task. They must win in Marseille to absolutely guarantee qualification (a draw would suffice if Besiktas manage to shock Porto away from home). They face a Marseille team who’s form has improved of late but they still languish in 13th position in Ligue 1. Liverpool, on the other hand, suffered their first defeat of the domestic campaign on Saturday, surprisingly losing away to Reading. It was interesting to hear Rafa Benitez comment “We know how to play under pressure. If you want to win trophies, you must play in finals. And for us, this is like a final”. He is right of course and I think these are the types of games Liverpool excel in. Remember their dramatic victories on the road to Instanbul in 2005? It seems Rafa can motivate them to raise their game when it really matters and man for man I think they’re a better side than Marseille. The 7/2 on Marseille to win at home is tasty, but it is a game that they don’t even have to win to steer well clear of that one. Instead I like the look of the 10/11 (BetDirect,
Boylesports) on Liverpool to win.
Porto already lead Group A and another 3 points against Besiktas will secure the coveted top spot. Given the Turk’s abject performances away from home so far this campaign (0-2 v Marseille, 0-8 v Liverpool), Porto should win this one. For me they’re too short at 4/9 (Bet365,
BetDirect,
Betfred,
Coral,
Ladbrokes,
Paddy Power,
Skybet,
Stan James) to back though.
On the face of it the transition from Jose Mourinho to Avram Grant at Chelsea has almost gone unnoticed. Steady performances and progress in the Champions League haven’t quite had fans saying ‘Jose who?’ but they do seem a team capable of mounting a serious European challenge again this season. Tonight they host Valencia who need a win to stand any chance of qualifying for the
UEFA Cup. Chelsea are already through as group winners so we can expect a few changes tonight. I never bet on games where teams don’t need to win - you never know what their mindset is - so will be leaving this one alone.
Despite a great campaign so far, Rosenborg could end up with just the
UEFA Cup last 32 as their reward. Tonight they need just a point from their game against against Schalke to make the last 16. The Germans are hot favourites at the bookies and the best price available is 4/11 (Bet365,
BetDirect,
Betfred,
BlueSq,
Coral,
Ladbrokes,
Paddy Power,
Skybet,
Stan James). The Norwegians will be determined not to fall at the final hurdle but I won’t be backing them to win (even at 8/1 with
Coral and
PartyBets), instead I’ll be looking to the Asian Handicap market where they can be backed with a +1.5 goal of a start at 39/40 with
Betfred. Meaning that even if they get beat by a single goal our bet will stay pay out.
The most intriguing group is Group C, where all 4 teams can qualify. Favourites are Real Madrid and Olympiakos by virtue that they are at home to the bottom two teams and only need a point to qualify. The results could go either way to be honest so I’m more interested in the totol goals market and fancy a bit of overs in each of them. Real Madrid v Lazio, over 2.5 goals is 8/11 at
Stan James and Olympiakos v Werder Bremen, over 2.5 goals is 8/11 at
BlueSq.
Don’t forget, you can win a £100 free bet a Paddy Power tonight by entering my exclusive competition here.