[Beanie]

On the basis of the last few months I have a pseudo-system, which is technically based on a few selection criteria but those criteria are largely based on personal opinion, which seems to work pretty well so I figure its time to start recording them in here(and since they involve a certain amount of laying and backing they are a bit messy to record in the golf threads(although I'll stick the main bets in there anyway.)

When I say in running i'll just stick to pre-round bets as in round bets aren't verifiable.

Selections are based on two things:

a) how well players 'respond' to poor holes - I noticed that a lot of those that came into contention in the closing rounds of tournaments are those that have been following up bogies or worse with birdies or better on the holes immediately after the setback. The mental side of golf is very important and it seems that this factor serves as a good indicator for who is in the zone in that particular week.

For example, a player can be leading after a low round, but if they rattled off six birdies early on but failed to make any further after their first bogey, then often when further bogies come in later rounds, which they will do, those players often struggle to stabilise their rounds, and when under pressure can begin to sink down the leaderboard without a trace. The converse seems to be true as well, or atleast I hope to prove it is.

b) a player's 'winning potential' - likewise, getting over the finishing line can be a tricky thing in golf, particularly for those that haven't won before, for those that are playing alongside experienced players in the final group, or for those that know a strong pack is chasing them, even if a) is true.

So based on a combination of those things, I'll attempt to judge a player's 'winning potential', add it in to a) and come up with some value punts.

What often seems to happen is that despite great form, great course record etc etc, a players mindset can vary wildly from week to week, and this can make pre tournament betting a bit of a struggle, and so I've found 2 rounds minimum are needed on which to base these decisions, and so bets will only be made prior to rounds 3 and 4.